{"id":8502,"date":"2011-04-11T06:54:13","date_gmt":"2011-04-11T13:54:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technightowl.com\/?p=8502"},"modified":"2011-04-11T06:54:13","modified_gmt":"2011-04-11T13:54:13","slug":"newsletter-issue-593-should-you-believe-industry-analyst-projections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technightowl.live\/blog\/2011\/04\/newsletter-issue-593-should-you-believe-industry-analyst-projections\/","title":{"rendered":"Newsletter Issue #593: Should You Believe Industry Analyst Projections?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A number of companies are in the business of trying to predict future sales of tech gear, but you wonder whether they actually use computers to crunch the numbers and come up projections, or they are taking out their crystal balls and ouija boards to divine the truth about future events. Or just talking through their hats.<\/p>\n<p>If you recall, one analyst last year projected some five million tablet computers would be sold in 2010, even after initial iPad sales had already come surprisingly close to that overall number. I\u2019d think that if I delivered such a pathetic outlook to my employers, I\u2019d be severely chastised, or be left looking for a new job. Then again, I suppose you could say the very same thing about product managers who continue to launch gear that fails. Where\u2019s the accountability?<\/p>\n<p>For example, there\u2019s a report quoting the Gartner Group suggesting that Google Android OS handsets will claim 49 percent of the market by 2015, and, somehow, and I don\u2019t know how, the Windows Phone platform from Microsoft will attain second place, way ahead of the iPhone.<\/p>\n<p>Now I presume that there are some clear assumptions in making this proclamation, the major one of which is the expected impact of that recent deal with Nokia and Microsoft. By the end of this year or early in 2012, Windows Phone 7 will take over the default spot on Nokia smartphones. I suppose the theory goes that, since Nokia is the largest handset maker on the planet, Microsoft\u2019s mobile OS is assured of success. Well, at least that\u2019s how the theory goes.<\/p>\n<p><a title=\"Wait! There's more than meets the eye!\" href=\"http:\/\/www.technightowl.live\/newsletter\/2011\/04\/newsletter-issue-593\/#goes\"><strong>Continue Reading\u2026<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A number of companies are in the business of trying to predict future sales of tech gear, but you wonder whether they actually use computers to crunch the numbers and come up projections, or they are taking out their crystal balls and ouija boards to divine the truth about future events. Or just talking through [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[8181,9351,4416,11847,26,443,9678,8261],"class_list":["post-8502","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-analyst","tag-android","tag-gartner-group","tag-handset-maker","tag-iphone","tag-microsoft","tag-nokia","tag-smartphones"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Newsletter Issue #593: Should You Believe Industry Analyst Projections? - Gene Steinberg&#039;s Tech Night Owl<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.technightowl.live\/blog\/2011\/04\/newsletter-issue-593-should-you-believe-industry-analyst-projections\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Newsletter Issue #593: Should You Believe Industry Analyst Projections? - Gene Steinberg&#039;s Tech Night Owl\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A number of companies are in the business of trying to predict future sales of tech gear, but you wonder whether they actually use computers to crunch the numbers and come up projections, or they are taking out their crystal balls and ouija boards to divine the truth about future events. Or just talking through [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.technightowl.live\/blog\/2011\/04\/newsletter-issue-593-should-you-believe-industry-analyst-projections\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Gene Steinberg&#039;s Tech Night Owl\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2011-04-11T13:54:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Gene Steinberg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@technightowl\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@technightowl\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Gene Steinberg\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.technightowl.live\\\/blog\\\/2011\\\/04\\\/newsletter-issue-593-should-you-believe-industry-analyst-projections\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.technightowl.live\\\/blog\\\/2011\\\/04\\\/newsletter-issue-593-should-you-believe-industry-analyst-projections\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Gene Steinberg\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.technightowl.live\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/0fe9df12a34fed15d45e05db1c205e2a\"},\"headline\":\"Newsletter Issue #593: Should You Believe Industry Analyst Projections?\",\"datePublished\":\"2011-04-11T13:54:13+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.technightowl.live\\\/blog\\\/2011\\\/04\\\/newsletter-issue-593-should-you-believe-industry-analyst-projections\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":279,\"commentCount\":0,\"keywords\":[\"analyst\",\"Android\",\"Gartner Group\",\"handset maker\",\"Iphone\",\"Microsoft\",\"Nokia\",\"smartphones\"],\"articleSection\":[\"News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.technightowl.live\\\/blog\\\/2011\\\/04\\\/newsletter-issue-593-should-you-believe-industry-analyst-projections\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.technightowl.live\\\/blog\\\/2011\\\/04\\\/newsletter-issue-593-should-you-believe-industry-analyst-projections\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.technightowl.live\\\/blog\\\/2011\\\/04\\\/newsletter-issue-593-should-you-believe-industry-analyst-projections\\\/\",\"name\":\"Newsletter Issue #593: Should You Believe Industry Analyst Projections? 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