Now Apple has mostly fallen into a sort of predictable schedule for some products and services. So you know there will be a WWDC some time in June, where new versions of iOS and OS X will be demonstrated. There may be more products, such as the Swift developer language. By September, you’ll see new iPhones, and maybe some outsider product, such as Apple Watch. October will bring new iPads, but Macs are mostly announced with press releases nowadays unless they are part of another media event.

So that opens up room for all sorts of speculation, such as new OS features and how Apple will change their mobile gear and whether some new Macs will enter the mix. Indeed, Mac updates may occur at other times during the year, perhaps in spring, but still they will be mostly heralded with a press release.

With Apple Watch, we know it’ll arrive in April since Tim Cook said so, and I suspect there will be a proper media event by then to tempt potential customers, reveal more features, and give a longer-range focus on where this product might be going. I suppose there could be other introductions, but it’s not at all certain.

Indeed, there’s no a rumor of an Apple press conference in late February where Apple Watch may be demonstrated, along with a rumored 12-inch MacBook Air with Retina display. But the same rumor claims the upgraded MacBook Air won’t be out until late March, so the timing doesn’t really make a lot of sense. If a combined event, wouldn’t it happen maybe a week or two out from the on-sale date?

If there is to be a major upgrade for Apple TV this year, that would also seem to require extensive media coverage. I suppose if deals with content providers and carriers aren’t set, there might be a fast and dirty 4K (Ultra HD) refresh, but that probably be heralded with a press release. If there’s something major in the winds, the final game plan for Apple’s former hobby, again getting the press assembled in one room, with proper streaming coverage online, would be appropriate.

It’s only common sense.

But what about other unannounced Apple products? Take the alleged iPad Pro, a bigger iPad Air 2, or something like that, with a 12-inch or larger display. If such a beast were to appear in the real world, what would it be aimed for? Would Apple be trying to convert possible note-book users to iPads by offering more screen real estate? Would it come with a keyboard cover in the style of a Surface? Why would Apple want to imitate a failed product? And, yes, selling one million of anything at Apple would be an abject failure nowadays, and that’s what Microsoft appears to be touting for the Surface Pro 3.

I suppose there’s a potential enterprise purpose for an iPad Pro. Perhaps content creators might have reason to want a more powerful iPad with a bigger display to do audio and video editing. But wouldn’t a traditional note-book, such as a MacBook Pro with Retina display, be more suitable? I’m just trying to understand the focus of such a product if it’s going to come to be.

Most important, I don’t think Apple will fall into the trap of offering lots of iPad variants as a means to jumpstart sales, because it might be little better than throwing darts on the wall, which isn’t a part of Apple’s methodology. No, there would have to be a long-range plan at the outset for different sized iPads before they are unleashed. I realize the supply chain might report that such products exist largely because prototypes have been built, but a prototype is not necessarily a finished product.

So speculating about when such gear might appear must seem an exercise in futility. When is Apple’s rumored connected TV set going to be out?

Of course, when predicted gear doesn’t show up, there can always be the argument that some sort of development or production glitch delayed the product. There were such claims about the Apple Watch, but I doubt very many people outside of Apple know how the design process went, or whether the final product was introduced later than Apple intended.

At least when it comes to a totally new product line, Apple can announce it weeks or months in advance without hurting sales of existing gear. That may not necessarily apply to a new form factor for an existing product, but something unique might be introduced as a way to tempt you to consider buying something you may not have previously thought about.

So there’s been much talk about the Apple Watch and its sales prospects. While only the price of the entry-level model, at $349, has been revealed, there’s speculation of how high it’ll go when gold is added to the mix. $5,000 perhaps?

Will Apple consider the possibility of chassis swaps, so as to future proof Apple Watch? I realize The Mac Observer’s John Martellaro has made such a suggestion, but I wouldn’t presume to know whether the existing design makes it practical. It does go against Apple’s usual approach. Well, except for the Mac Pro, where you can even upgrade the Xeon processor as newer and faster chips become available.

Still, it’s fun to speculate about what products Apple is concocting, and when said products might see the light of day. Just because something is rumored, however, doesn’t mean it’s time to speculate when it might be available.

There’s a perception, one I believe to be mistaken, that the adoption rate for the latest version of Apple’s mobile OS is seriously lagging. But aside from your definition of “lagging” or “poor,” there are other issues to consider.

First is the claim that iOS 8 was hopelessly flawed, and thus people were less inclined to upgrade. Or maybe, on the surface, it didn’t seem so much different from iOS 7, so why bother? It didn’t help that the original versions of the upgrade used far too much space on an iOS device with 16GB of storage or less. Requiring several gigabytes when a device is filled with apps and photos and such may have been necessary from a programming standpoint, but it wasn’t terribly helpful to customers.

So things have improved, and the iOS 8.1.3 release notes specifically cited reduced space for performing an upgrade (but not how much). Even more important, you are not forced to do an in-device upgrade, even though that’s been the promise in iOS for a while now. Instead, you can always run it the old fashioned way, and perform the upgrade with iTunes on your Mac or PC. Maybe you don’t want to tether your iPhone, iPad or iPod touch to another device for a short while to upgrade the OS, but it may work where other solutions fail.

Another deterrent to upgrade is the possibility of reduced performance. So if you have the oldest supported devices, including the iPhone 4s and iPad 2, well it won’t be quite as snappy. Apps will launch a bit slower, but we’re talking of fractions of a second for the most part, except for a somewhat longer boot process. But turning off the zooming and motion effects in the Accessibility settings will make your gear seem noticeably faster. Besides, do you really care about the special effects?

The other issue, more important, is whether there are persistent bugs that will make apps crash or otherwise misbehave, or whether you’ll have problems establishing and sustaining a Bluetooth or Wi-Fi connection. When it comes to networking, these are supposed to be among the more significant lingering iOS 8 bugs. The last fix, for Wi-Fi, came in iOS 8.1, and there’s an 8.2 under development that may hit in March or April. If the latter, perhaps with the official Apple Watch launch, but it’s not certain what else will get fixed.

After all is said and done, then, how well is the iOS 8 adoption rate faring? The answers are easy to come by, but you need some perspective.

So according to the data at Apple’s developer site, 72% of all iOS devices currently active are using iOS 8. Some 25% remain with iOS 7. A third-party survey, from Mixpanel Trends, put the adoption rate at 74%, but both numbers may go up and down slightly from day to day even if the overall trend is up. The reason that Mixpanel’s rate seems to always run higher than Apple’s is that the latter is depending on App Store access. It may not reflect the actual total user rate, but a few points one way or the other is a reasonable margin for error.

At the same time, Mixpanel’s chart on the iOS 7 adoption rate at this time last year was roughly 85%. But is 11 percent lower truly an indictment on iOS 8, or are other factors at play?

Most of the media analysis I see blames iOS 8 bugs and the higher storage needs for performing the upgrade. The former would appear to be true, but don’t forget that iOS 7’s arrival was quite ragged too. Apple had to make a few refinements to the light and thin interface over several releases, and there were a few of the usual networking and battery life issues to confront. Performance on the oldest supported hardware, which then included the iPhone 4, was poor until a few releases made it a little snappier.

Doesn’t this all sound familiar?

Apple is still stung by that dreaded iOS 8.0.1 upgrade, even though it only impacted about 40,000 devices and was restricted to the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus. The problems included the inability to make a cell phone call and an inactive Touch ID. These, as you recall, were outfitted with iOS 8 when they shipped, so you didn’t have a choice other than to avoid the upgrade. Besides, Apple pulled 8.0.1 within an hour, and released a fixed version the very next day. They also posted online instructions to restore affected devices so they’d be working again.

Unfortunately the media reports on this problem often avoided mentioning how quickly the update was withdrawn, and what Apple did to make things right. Remember that other companies have suffered from faulty upgrades, and Microsoft is one of the worst offenders. Imagine upgrading Windows only to confront a boot looping problem, meaning it keeps rebooting. The first release of Android 5 Lollipop was quickly withdrawn due to serious performance issues, and it took a couple of weeks for a new version to arrive.

Now some comparisons: The latest adoption rate stats for Android 5 Lollipop at Mixpanel Trends totaled 3.54% after three months. Windows 8.1 adoption was in the high single digits according to a few surveys I checked. I’ll grant either might be off a few points, but consider how well Apple is doing by comparison.

There’s one more issue. iOS 8 abandons tens of millions of additional iOS devices compared to iOS 7. As sales of new gear grow, the adoption rate will climb too. It may well be that, by September, when iOS 9 is due, some 85-90% of iOS users will have upgraded, in the ballpark of iOS 7. Apple should certainly work as hard as possible to squash the remaining bugs, but when it comes to the adoption rate, Apple need make no apologies.

Before I start, let me tell you that I still sometimes refer to Apple Watch as iWatch. I suppose old habits die hard, but it’s also true that the media assumed Apple hadn’t given up on the “i” prefix just yet, although it’s more than 16 years since the first iMac was introduced, so isn’t it time to do something different? But putting Apple in a name is a concept that’s even older.

No matter. Tim Cook says Apple Watch will arrive “on schedule” in April. Last year, the promise was “early 2015,” and April is very much at the tail end of what you call early. In any case, it’s clear it will arrive with a media event to jumpstart sales. This is not a product that’ll be announced with a mere press release, since it’s version 1.0, and lots of questions remain to be answered.

So you know that the price for the cheapest model will be $349, although I suppose Apple could surprise everyone and start at $299, though I wouldn’t expect it. Cheapening the price at launch would be a tacit admission that the original price was just too high, and that’s an open question. I man, the iPod did real well at $399 back in 2001, and it was a while before prices came down, largely by introducing a procession of low-end variants.

This time, Apple Watch comes in several styles, and when you add 18 karat gold to the mix, there’s a price to pay. Some are suggesting prices as high as $5,000 (or maybe $4,999?). I wouldn’t presume to take a guess, but clearly people with a bent for fashion, and plenty of disposable income, might jump at the opportunity to be the first in their neighborhood to own an Apple Watch.

Speaking of jumping, tech pundits are jumping over themselves attempting to guess how many of these smartwatches will be sold out of the starting gate. We know, for example, that Pebble claims to have sold one million smartwatches since they were first introduced, but that’s not terribly impressive considering the scales Apple routinely handles.

Once Apple Watch goes on sale, will people be snaking around the nearest Apple Store to get one or more of them? Will it be the iPhone intro party all over again, or will the sales volume be more subdued?

As the first version, Apple Watch will have some serious limitations that only time and technology are likely to resolve. First is battery life, so it’s fairly certain that you’ll have to recharge yours each day with extended use. Compare that to a regular watch that can operate for years before a battery transplant is necessary. Remember, too, that replacing the battery of an Apple Watch won’t be a user serviceable item, and could cost $50 or more. With a regular battery-powered watch the replacement can be had for maybe $6 at a Walmart store, and a couple of dollars less if you buy a kit and do it yourself.

Over time, with less power-hungry chips, and improvements in battery technology, maybe the recharge cycle can be extended to a few days or more.

The other limitation is the fact that Apple Watch is heavily dependent on an iPhone of recent vintage to do most things. It’s in that sense an extension of your iPhone, or an accessory device. If you leave your iPhone at home, or in the car, your Apple Watch suddenly becomes a whole lot less useful.

Now this iPhone-tethering is clearly required by current technology. You can’t put the guts of an iPhone into a tiny Apple Watch case and be assured of the full user experience as a standalone device. At least not today. But don’t forget that the first iPhone was severely limited. It wouldn’t even connect to a 3G network let alone 4G, LTE or whatever. There was no App Store.

So you can expect that the 2017 Apple Watch may get closer to device independence; I’m being conservative and I’d be amazed of a version 2.0 Apple Watch in 2016 achieved that goal. But I do believe that’s Apple’s end game, for otherwise this is a gadget that will have severe limitations going forward.

The other question is the expected replacement cycle. If someone is paying as much as several thousand dollars per copy, buying a new one every year or two wouldn’t seem terribly sensible. A watch is meant to last for years. My cheap Guess chronograph goes back to the early 2000s, and has required nothing more than the occasional battery transplant.

One possibility, mentioned by John Martellaro of The Mac Observer, is some sort of field upgrade program. So you could somehow unpack the internal module of an Apple Watch and exchange it for next year’s model for a “modest” fee. More than likely, if such a replacement program was in force, you’d have to send it to Apple or have your local Apple Store genius do it for you. Since an internal hardware replacement would involve the same hardware regardless of the fanciness of the case, maybe it would not present a serious charge. I’d guess maybe $200-250 or so if such a thing became possible.

A field-upgradeable Apple Watch sounds intriguing. But what about the iPhone or iPad? Maybe not so much, since a watch ought to be intended for long-term use, so Apple would be expected to keep the current form factor around for a while.

Lots of questions, and I would expect many of them will be answered at the next Apple media event. But it won’t happen on April Fool’s Day.

For some of you, these are trying times for Apple customers. While things should just work, or mostly just work after a bug fix or two, of late there appear to be serious defects that impact an unknown but possibly sizable number of customers that aren’t getting fixed. Before I go on, I have to tell you that I’m not having most of these problems, having run several Macs and iOS devices with the latest and greatest OS versions.

So the issues I’ve encountered are usually far more subtle, and thus may not rise to the top of a fixer-upper spreadsheet or flow chart and thus may not get fixed anytime soon. So Apple Mail continues to lose the display of the number of messages in a folder. On occasion, Mail for iOS 8 will just quit, or will refuse to rotate when I turn my iPhone from landscape to portrait. For the first, quitting the app and relaunching works for a while, and the solution to the second is the equivalent, to force quit from the multitask menu. I’ve also encountered iCloud sync problems in recent days that Apple support is investigating.

Unfortunately, the other problems are far more serious for those who have confronted them. The two OS X Yosemite fixes released so far were supposed to repair Wi-Fi connection issues. To some they do. To others they don’t, and thus there are some online remedies posted that are supposed to repair the problem.

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