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    Last Episode — August 24: Gene presents a regular, tech podcaster and commentator Kirk McElhearn , who comes aboard to talk about the impact of the outbreak of data hacks and ways to protect your stuff with strong passwords. He’ll also provide a common sense if unsuspected tip in setting one up. Also on the agenda, rumors about the next Mac mini from Apple. Will it, as rumored, be a visual clone of the Apple TV, and what are he limitations of such a form factor? As a sci-fi and fantasy fan, Kirk will also talk about some of his favorite stories and more. In is regular life, Kirk is a lapsed New Yorker living in Shakespeare’s home town, Stratford-upon-Avon, in the United Kingdom. He writes about things, records podcasts, makes photos, practices zen, and cohabits with cats. He’s an amateur photographer, and shoots with Leica cameras and iPhones. His writings include regular contributions to The Mac Security Blog , The Literature & Latte Blog, and TidBITS, and he has written for Popular Photography, MusicWeb International, as well as several other web sites and magazines. Kirk has also written more than two dozen books and documentation for dozens of popular Mac apps, as well as press releases, web content, reports, white papers, and more.

    For more episodes, click here to visit the show’s home page.

    Apple, Wall Street and Schizophrenia

    October 30th, 2013

    As usual, Apple must play by a different set of rules when it comes to Wall Street. You would think a company’s profits would actually make a difference, but that expectation would be wrong. So even though Apple’s margins, though somewhat lower than before, are the envy of the tech industry, it’s just not enough. Well, at least as far as Apple goes.

    So we see the peculiar situation where a Wall Street darling, Amazon, hardly runs a profit and usually runs a slight loss. The usual excuse is that the money is being poured back into the business, to fuel future growth. It’s also true that there are more and more Amazon shipping centers around the U.S., with more employees being hired to work with them.

    Of course, there’s the conspiracy theory that Amazon hopes to put smaller merchants out of business by undercutting them on price and services. After that, prices will climb, and so will profits.

    To be sure, Amazon offers really good service. If you are a member of “Prime,” a $79 annual program that gives you free two-day shipping on most items, plus instant videos and other benefits, you may really make out ahead if you’re a regular customer. Sometimes it’s even faster than two days, as it is in the area in which I live, Phoenix, because Amazon has a shipping center in the area. Some items, particularly from third-party merchants, don’t qualify, and getting guaranteed next day delivery may deliver a horrendous surcharge.

    The Kindle e-book readers have garnered favorable ratings, and they are cheap. Indeed, Amazon doesn’t appear to make much or any profit from them; the profits supposedly come from the items purchased through Amazon’s storefront access on those tablets. But Amazon doesn’t make profits from those sales either. It’s all about cash flow.

    Regardless, Amazon’s stock maintains a pretty good growth curve.

    Apple? Well, the financial community isn’t able to deliver a consistent set of recommendations. So we have the peculiar situation of the company’s stock price being battered because of lower profits. Why are profits lower? Because the product mix has moved towards lower priced gear, which deliver slimmer margins. This makes perfect sense. Indeed, Apple CEO Tim Cook has said yet again that the entry-level iPhone, which is now the 4s, will be pushed to emerging countries, and it’s clear there will be flexible pricing. No, the 5c was never intended to be cheap.

    This is actually a good thing. I owned an iPhone 4s, and it was a great smartphone. Sure, it’s not as fast as the iPhone 5 series, particularly the iPhone 5s, but most people won’t see it as necessarily slower. The 3.5-inch screen may be a negative to some who cherish five inches or more, but it’s perfectly comfortable for normal one-handed use. In fact, at one time the iPhone’s original display configuration was actually considered large.

    When it comes to the iPad, the mini garnered what appeared to be a larger-than-expected share of the market. Since profits were lower, it negatively impacted Apple’s margins, as did the front loading of lots of new gear last year, a situation that has somewhat repeated itself this fall. Understand that Apple’s double-digit margins are, once again, much higher than that of other companies, which often report profits in the single digits, if profits are indeed being earned.

    Now we have the situation where the financial community continues to admonish Apple to build cheaper gear, to expand the market against the encroachment from Android, and particularly Samsung. Although Apple has only rarely dominated markets for any length of time, and the iPod is a rare example, the Street wants the company to change or face the prospects of becoming irrelevant. But when Apple does build lower cost gear, which naturally impacts profits, that’s the wrong thing to do.

    Indeed, if anything, it’s clear that Apple is more and more sensitive to price. Take the Mac. Sales are down somewhat, though not quite as much as some of the PC industry biggies, but you’ve seen new models at lower prices, and the decision to make OS X, iLife and iWork free. By making some software free, Apple deferred $900 million of earnings for arcane accounting reasons, but this is part of a long-term strategy to keep the Mac platform viable and deliver greater value to customers.

    So would those alleged financial wizards prefer that Apple increase the price of Macs, and charge $129 for Mavericks? It’s clear that Apple does offer savings strategically, rather than across the board. But if somewhat lower profits mean that Apple expands markets in meaningful ways, with quality gear rather than cheap junk, it certainly works to the benefit of the company. It also helps customers, because Apple can continue to invest in cutting-edge gear.

    I mean, how many smartphone makers figured out a user-friendly way to add a fingerprint sensor? Compare Apple’s solution, Touch ID, which mostly just works, to the convoluted, confusing version from HTC. Does HTC really believe that sticking the sensor in the rear, below the camera, is a better solution? Apple also added 64-bit processing ahead of the industry who, after saying it wasn’t necessary, were only too happy to promise their own solutions.

    So we have Wall Street at once wanting Apple to sell more lower priced gear yet, at the same time, increase profit margins. You can’t have it both ways.


    Finding Bad News in Good News About Apple

    October 29th, 2013

    So on the surface, Apple had a pretty decent quarter. iPhone sales were unexpectedly high, growing 26% over last year to set a new record for this time of year. In contrast, iPad sales grew just a tiny bit, and Mac sales continued to drop, though not quite as bad as some other PC makers. Regardless, the critics will find bad news aplenty. They always do.

    So here are the basics: In the fiscal 2013 fourth quarter ending September 28, Apple took in $37.5 billion, with a net profit of $7.5 billion, or $8.26 per diluted share. But notice that this number was only somewhat better than last year’s $36 billion in revenue, but shy of last year’s net profit of $8.2 billion or $8.67 per diluted share.

    That’s where the street seems to have concerns, that Apple’s great profits may not be so great going forward. Of course, they are still better than other hardware companies, but Apple must play by a different set of rules.

    Now as far as the specifics: Apple sold some 33.8 million iPhones, compared to 26.9 million last year, no doubt the result of the blowout introduction of the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c. As you recall, some nine million of them were sold the very first weekend. After a drop in the previous quarter, Apple managed to sell 14.1 million iPads ahead of the expected introduction of new models, which in fact occurred last week, as most of you recall. Last year, 14 million were sold.

    Now it may be better this quarter, but some 4.6 million Macs were sold in the last quarter, compared to 4.9 million in the year-ago quarter. Yes, new iMacs were introduced four days before the end of the quarter, and there was a new MacBook Air launch in the previous quarter. But the mainstream MacBook Pro with Retina display was clearly getting a tad long in the tooth, and I suspect Mac Pro sales have fallen off the cliff except for customers who would rather have the old than the new because of the lack of internal expansion.

    In case you’re wondering, overall PC sales were down 10 percent over the last quarter, at least according to Apple. If correct, this means that the Mac is still ahead of the industry, though declining sales are still declining sales. This does seem to explain why the refreshed MacBook Pro with Retina display is $200 cheaper, and Mavericks, iLife and iWork are now free.

    In keeping with the new policy about dividends, Apple’s board declared $3.05 per share, payable November 14 for shareholders on record as of November 11. So I suppose that move will make the stock more attractive to investors. Meantime, investor Carl Icahn continues to push the company for a larger stock buyback, which may look good in the financial community, but hardly helps Apple sell more gear.

    Speaking of which: For this quarter, Apple expects revenue between $55 billion of $58 billion, with gross margins ranging from 36.5 percent to 37.5 percent. If you want more of the raw figures, you’ll want to visit Apple site and check out the press release.

    During the quarterly call with financial analysts, Apple gave the usual rosy picture of sales and hopes for the future. So there’s the claim that 90 percent of tablet activations last quarter were iPads. What about Kindles, Androids? As usual the people asking the questions aren’t too good about the hard questions and the follow-ups.

    But here are some more interesting numbers: Of those who expect to buy a smartphone in the next few weeks, 63% plan to choose the iPhone. The satisfaction rate is 90%, and, to the surprise of some media pundits who claim otherwise, the iPhone 5c was never meant to be the cheap iPhone. This year, that honor falls on the iPhone 4s.

    When it comes to the iPad, CEO Tim Cook said the company wasn’t sure whether they could meet meet demand for the iPad mini with Retina display this quarter, which could potentially depress sales. But perhaps some customers will go for the iPad Air, while others will prefer paying a “bargain” price of $299 for a first generation iPad mini and give up on the sharper display.

    While I suppose there may be yet another small product intro, perhaps a new Mac mini with Haswell chips, all eyes are no doubt focused on what Apple plans for 2014. During the conference call, Cook again promised “exciting new products” for 2014, and that new product categories are part of the program. That should help raise speculation on just what those categories might be.

    That takes us back to ongoing rumors about wearable devices, such as an iWatch. So far, reaction to existing gear has been tepid, and Samsung’s highly-touted Galaxy Gear smartwatch has gotten lukewarm reviews. There are also reports of high returns, in part because the new gadget isn’t compatible with many mobile devices. This is unlike the cheaper Pebble smartwatch that boasts the ability to pair with both Android and iOS gear.

    There’s also the world of television, and whether Apple’s next move is a fleshed out Apple TV set top box, or a full blown TV set — or both. Some expected a new Apple TV this year, but all that’s arrived so far is a set of software updates to add more channels and fix bugs. It’s also a little late in the season, at least for Apple, to hold yet another media event this year to introduce something new and different.

    So looking to 2014 makes sense, while those concerned about Apple’s financials will continue to worry about whether Apple will be able to meet demand for the iPhone 5s and the iPad mini this quarter.


    Newsletter Issue #726: The Pages Report: Charging Less for Less

    October 28th, 2013

    To some, iWork has remained the poor stepchild at Apple. A successor to AppleWorks, it was meant to provide all of the basic productivity functions, from word processing to spreadsheets to presentations, which most regular people would need. Within the limits for advanced formatting, you could also read and write files in Microsoft Office formats, so you could be compatible with the rest of the world.

    After a promising start, iWork appeared to languish in the “09” version, with only modest updates to fix bugs and enhance support for newer versions of OS X and the iOS alternatives. The iOS versions, as you might expect, focused on just the basics, avoiding the advanced features that might require too much in the way of system resources.

    Between 2009 and 2013, there were occasional rumors of an impending iWork update, but it never happened. When Apple announced that iWork would henceforth be free at the recent iPad rollout event, it had to come as somewhat of a surprise, though it makes sense after the decision to do the same with the iPhone and iPad. But a number of Mac users aren’t happy with the new, free versions.

    Continue Reading…


    Pushing Paper or Selling Products

    October 25th, 2013

    So Apple’s stock price was boosted Thursday by the news that billionaire investor and firebrand Carl Icahn had boosted his holdings in the company by some 22%, and was pushing for a $150 billion stock buyback. Supposedly such a move, if it’s done as Icahn suggests, would boost Apple’s stock price to four-figure levels. Supposedly.

    Understand that, if Apple expanded the stock buyback program to the levels Icahn is demanding, it wouldn’t actually increase revenues or profits. It’s all about pushing paper, and redistributing a healthy portion of the company’s huge cash hoard from the Cayman Islands, Ireland, or whoever it is, back to investors. It won’t necessarily convince anyone to buy an iPhone who isn’t already planning to do so, nor an iPad, a Mac, or an Apple TV. You wouldn’t necessarily see downloads of digital music or movies from iTunes increase either. It’s just a money game designed to enhance Apple’s reputation among Wall Street investors, as if that’s necessary to survive.

    Now I don’t want to get into the intricacies of such financial maneuvering. That’s not my expertise, and I have tended to stay out of the fray. I prefer to concentrate on what Apple is really doing to impact the tech industry, and how money is moved back and forth doesn’t mean much except to those who might gain from the stock buybacks.

    In other words, it’s a diversionary maneuver, pure and simple.

    So we have the recent decision of the shareholders of Dell to approve the plan to take the company private. Now that might be a good thing for founder Michael Dell and the size of his bank account. More power to him. He even boasted that he is “energized to continue building Dell.” But the real question is: What is he building?

    Dell got its start as an assembler of cheap PCs, using off-the-shelf parts. There was very little design involved, other than choosing the color of a generic case, and which commodity parts to install. Indeed, there were loads of options for you to customize a Dell PC the way you want. That is supposed to be a good thing, and it’s also true that Dell’s hardware tended to be cheaper before the industry embarked on the fatal rush to the bottom.

    Now Dell’s decision to go private comes at a time where PC sales are falling, and even HP is focusing on that ephemeral “services” category, where you earn money from providing support or building customized apps for the enterprise. Assuming there’s a demand for these services, profits can be quite high, far higher than selling PCs that are little different from anyone else’s PCs.

    What it also means is that Dell is no longer dependent on the vagaries of Wall Street, the financial community, or massive numbers of shareholders staging a revolt. But that doesn’t mean Dell’s problems in coping with a changed marketplace will just up and vanish, and it’s not as if the chief executive has voiced any bright ideas on turning a page. Time will tell.

    As to Apple, according to published reports, Tim Cook’s recent meeting with Icahn was described as “tense.” This wasn’t confirmed by the people who were present, of course, but I am not surprised that Cook would resist hard pressure to change the company’s position on playing with paper money. That can be a distraction. Wall Street might approve, but it wouldn’t make for a better iPhone, iPad or Mac. So you wonder if the exercise is worth the time and resources.

    But it’s a sure thing that Wall Street has never understood Apple. The company, which so often goes its own way, is viewed in comparison to what other large multinational corporations do, or are supposed to do, according to the rules of the game. So when Apple refuses to build cheap gear, and race with the rest of the tech industry to the bottom, that is supposed to be a bad thing. When the iPhone 5c came out at a price only $100 less than the flagship 5s, that was also supposed to be the wrong move. There are even unconfirmed published reports that the 5c is an abject failure, although there is no evidence of any such thing. There’s also no evidence of what Apple expected of the product.

    But it is clear that the 5c is cheaper to produce than last year’s iPhone 5, which would have become the second tier product had Apple followed the previous game plan. In the end, Apple earns more money, and if they manage to push a few more units into the hands of customers, it’s a win. But if more people buy the 5s, it’s a bigger win. If you want a cheap iPhone, get the 4s free with a wireless carrier contract, or just put it on your credit card.

    At the same time, there is speculation that Apple’s move to make OS X and consumer apps free will not cost very much in revenue, or at least compared to what Apple usually earns. But it could help encourage people to become part of the Apple ecosystem, if they can be assured of free apps and OS versions during the life of their products, or as long as they remain compatible, it would make Apple gear an even better value proposition.

    If Microsoft makes Windows free — and remember that 8.1 is only a free update for users of Windows 8 — it destroys a substantial part of the company’s revenue base. Of course, they could always stage a stock buyback to divert attention from what’s really going on.