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    Last Episode — August 24: Gene presents a regular, tech podcaster and commentator Kirk McElhearn , who comes aboard to talk about the impact of the outbreak of data hacks and ways to protect your stuff with strong passwords. He’ll also provide a common sense if unsuspected tip in setting one up. Also on the agenda, rumors about the next Mac mini from Apple. Will it, as rumored, be a visual clone of the Apple TV, and what are he limitations of such a form factor? As a sci-fi and fantasy fan, Kirk will also talk about some of his favorite stories and more. In is regular life, Kirk is a lapsed New Yorker living in Shakespeare’s home town, Stratford-upon-Avon, in the United Kingdom. He writes about things, records podcasts, makes photos, practices zen, and cohabits with cats. He’s an amateur photographer, and shoots with Leica cameras and iPhones. His writings include regular contributions to The Mac Security Blog , The Literature & Latte Blog, and TidBITS, and he has written for Popular Photography, MusicWeb International, as well as several other web sites and magazines. Kirk has also written more than two dozen books and documentation for dozens of popular Mac apps, as well as press releases, web content, reports, white papers, and more.

    For more episodes, click here to visit the show’s home page.

    Apple and Those Alleged Headwinds

    January 8th, 2016

    So, as in the past, there are once again rumors or alleged stirrings from the supply chain about Apple severely cutting orders for the iPhone for the March quarter. This has caused the expected Wall Street freakout, as if the problems on the market aren’t bad enough. Combine that with the problems China is having propping up its stock market, and it’s panic city.

    Or at least it seems to be.

    Now it’s not that China’s financial issues are anything new. Last time we had this problem, Tim Cook had to announce that, despite the imagined threats to sales, Apple was doing quite well. So far, though, he hasn’t said anything. Earnings are set to be revealed on January 26th. Coming this close to that date, it’s not unusual for a company to observe a “quiet period” and not say anything that would prejudice the market. This gives the Street tacit approval to engage in whatever speculation it wants, warranted or otherwise.

    With all the bad hints, therefore, it’s now feared that Apple might miss its expected earnings targets. That’s certainly taking us into a rarified atmosphere, as Apple is usually pretty conservative about such projections. But if you believe the stories out there, and the decisions of certain financial analysts to downgrade Apple’s stock, you might worry about what’s really going on.

    So is it true that orders for iPhones were cut back by 30%? Was that because there are millions of unsold units in the sales channel, or because of normal seasonal trends? Remember, that there are generally lower sales in the March quarter than the December quarter, so cutbacks are going to be expected.

    But don’t forget how Tim Cook admonished the financial community a couple of years ago, during a quarterly conference call with investors, that they should not take a metric or two from the supply chain an assume it applies to the entire sales picture. Apple does shift suppliers from time to time as a matter of course, and not necessarily because sales are low. They know the reasons, we don’t.

    Obviously, searching for breadcrumbs about Apple’s supply chain order patterns or overall sales can be a full time job for some people. But that doesn’t mean they have the remotest clue about how well Apple is doing. Still, there may be some clues when sales estimates for December quarter in the tech industry appear. Even then, such mainstays as Gartner and IDC are notorious for undercounting Mac sales, or splitting up tablet sales in arbitrary ways so as to make it appear as if Apple’s share of the market is lower than it really is.

    I won’t suggest there’s a conspiracy against Apple, but you might wonder what’s going on when you look at the clients who hire these analyst firms to get some numbers, and whether the client, and the needs of the client, are somehow skewing the results.

    Indeed, if you evaluated some of the long-term trends from these firms on accuracy alone, they’d fail big time. Does that mean their clients ought to be requesting refunds? Do you remember when it was once predicted that Windows Phone sales would exceed those of iPhones?

    The long and short of it is that it’s easy to go online and Google (or Bing or Yahoo) the financial troubles in China. It is fair to suggest that situation could hurt iPhone sales, but those who are in the know won’t say right now.

    The long and short of it is that, in the absence of a statement from Apple that probably won’t come until financials are released, the media and the financial community are having a ball claiming Apple is in trouble once again. Or that Apple is just lucky to escape a serious sales downturn, and it’s time to pay the piper.

    Reports of problems with the supply chain appeared before, in late 2012. Despite record iPhone 5s sales, it was still deemed as unsuccessful. The iPhone 5c was said to be a dud, even though there was no evidence whatever that such a thing was true. In fact, from what Apple said without actually releasing figures, it appeared to have delivered the expected level of performance.

    Still, Apple’s stock price nosedived through part of 2013. What Cook said to financial analysts was quoted here and there, but mostly ignored. He might as well have shut his mouth for all the good it did. This time, we have similar rumors about sales problems, and supply chain cutbacks. There is, once again, no evidence that any of it is so. Indeed, a analytics of iPhone 6s and 6s Plus adoption this past quarter, from Fiksu (a mobile marketing firm from Boston), reveal what is regarded as normal rates.

    If Apple does release results that meet with their quarterly guidance, it’ll probably not be good enough. The expectations for the March quarter will receive close attention. But if sales just happened to be bad, as feared, Apple will get a much higher level of blowback than other tech companies facing sales headwinds. Same as it ever was.


    The Rattle Your Cage Report

    January 7th, 2016

    Call me obsessive-compulsive, or perhaps hyper-critical, but I just cannot stand the sound of rattles and squeaks in cars, or any motor vehicle. Indeed, I always cringed a bit when I heard the din on a typical New York City bus when going over large bumps. Since I pretty much grew up riding buses and subways in New York, you can imagine I must have had an annoying childhood, but I learned to endure it. It’s not that these vehicles would be subjected to the sort of fine tuning to which we’d subject our own personal vehicles.

    Understand, I’m not expecting perfection. I know that any combination of metal, plastic, rubber and other parts, when they come together, can create all sorts of noises. Some of those noises, such as the soft rumble over a bump or the engine whirring or roaring, can be downright pleasant. It’s part of the sound of a well-functioning machine. Sometimes the noisier the better, and auto makers are known to enhance the sounds made by a relatively quiet engine courtesy of the infotainment system. It’s done sometimes with hybrid or electric car to make them sound a little more “normal.” Yes, I am serious!

    A few squeaks here and there, even a rattle, might occur over large or repetitive bumps. You can’t expect perfection, But I’ve driven some vehicles where the unwanted sounds got so loud, I would sometimes feel I was at the steering wheel of an old truck where things were coming loose.

    Curiously, the noises have been worst in the more expensive cars I’ve bought or leased. I remember two occasions where I leased a Mercedes Benz in the 1980s, when the monthly payments were actually lower than typical mid-sized sedans of the period. I took advantage of high resale prices to put myself in what I perceived to be the hands of luxury.

    But in both cases, the cars arrived, after dealer prep, with loud squeaks and rattles emerging from the dash. Unfortunately with such noises, it may not happen 100% of the time, and thus may not be present when you visit the dealer. Intermittent symptoms are especially frustrating, because the dealer can’t begin to make an effort to fix the problem without being able to duplicate it. Worse, they aren’t always interested in dealing with rattles and squeaks, although manufacturers will usually cover such repairs in the early days of ownership.

    What make the process doubly difficult is the fact that, even if you hear the problem, locating the source may be difficult. The possible dashboard rattle may actually be traced to an inside door panel, or something inside the door. If it’s not two plastic parts rubbing together, maybe a screw has come loose, or a small part was left there by mistake at the assembly plant. But sometimes, the problem is well known. There may even be service bulletins on the matter, but dealers will only undertake repairs if you complain.

    That takes us to the white 1993 Saturn SL2 I bought in late 1992. This was GM’s better idea for a car that you could buy at a fixed price, without the need to undergo the usual dealer song-and-dance. On paper, the car promised lots, up to 34 miles per gallon, and peppy performance. Seats were comfortable, the radio and air conditioning worked well, but oh that buzzing sound from the front doors!

    Well, the dealer knew what to do, which was to remove the inside door panels and shore up the insides with strategically placed foam fittings to silence the vibration. This was evidently a manufacturer-mandated fix. You wonder why it wasn’t done at the factory. Perhaps in the rush to get these cars to market, or maybe GM hoped to save a few dollars on each unit with the expectation that the problem would be inconsistent or customers wouldn’t complain.

    And please don’t get me started about what Ford did in the 1970s with the infamous Pinto’s gas tank and connectors to shave a few dollars from production costs.

    Back to my Saturn: It took the tech an hour or two to sure up the insides of the door panels, after which the car lived its useful life without delivering any further untoward noises. Despite its relatively small size, I was able to pack up the family, and drive with relative comfort on a 2,375 mile trip from my New Jersey residence to our new home in Arizona, near Phoenix.

    A few years later, I traded it in for another SL2. This time, it was clear Saturn had paid attention, as there were no unusual squeaks or rattles that I noticed. Indeed, dealer prep was almost perfect, and I only visited the service department for oil changes and other routine maintenance. So you can say I was sort of sold on GM.

    But when I checked out a new Saturn a few years later, I was sorely disappointed. GM had fixed what didn’t need to be fixed. The seats were uncomfortable, and I decided to trade up.

    So I leased a 1999 Cadillac Catera, a low-end luxury car built by GM’s troubled Opel division in Germany. Driving the car home, it rattled like a truck, and the wheel alignment was clearly way off, since it had a strong rightward drift. It took several dealer visits to address these defects, which should have been repaired or adjusted during the pre-delivery process, only it appeared the dealer did little more than to wash the car and bring it out to me.

    Other than the wheel alignment and rattles, the Catera was riddled with defects, which resulted in my suing GM for a refund. Otherwise my automotive acquisitions in the ensuing years have been relatively trouble-free. Evidently manufacturers have found ways tighten tolerances to reduce the occurrence of rattles and other untoward sounds, although I had them occasionally.

    The most curious rattle, however, occurred to a VW Passat I once owned. It rode and handled beautifully, except for that intermittent rattle. After two dealer visits, during which they treated the right side airbag department and other possible sources for rattles, the noise kept returning. But usually when I drove home, so it was hard to reproduce it for the dealer.

    On the third visit, the mechanic rode in the passenger seat with me to diagnose. He heard the sound and pointed me to the sunglass compartment on the roof, attached to the front interior light assembly. I pulled out my wire-rimmed reading glasses, and the sound was gone!

    With those common plastic-to-plastic squeaks, car service people will often apply some WD40 or silicone spray to the affected areas, which will usually silence the noise, at least for a time, since the two surfaces thus slide together smoothly. But I would not suggest you follow the same procedure, although I’ve seen dealers liberally treat squeaky cars in this fashion when the need arose.

    If you want to check whether a car has a tendency to rattle, you might look over the Consumer Reports reliability ratings, which are based on reader surveys. Look for the “body integrity and hardware” category. The motor vehicles that score worse will usually be the ones that are rattle prone. If you still want to get that car, ask the dealer whether the warranty covers squeak/rattle diagnostics. A VW dealer once told me that coverage for such issues by the factory usually extends to the first year, after which you’re on your own.


    Hopes and Dreams for the Next Mac

    January 6th, 2016

    In 2015, the sole major improvement (or at least change) on the Mac platform was the introduction of a slimmer, lighter MacBook. But the MacBook wasn’t for everyone. For road warriors who didn’t need a lot of power, and could survive without having to hook up a bunch of extra stuff, it made perfect sense.

    At first, the tech media, in large part, dismissed the product as an overpriced indulgence, since it only had a headphone port and a USB-C port that doubled as a charging connector. To get multiple functions, and still keep the charging cable connected, you needed an adapter. What about all that stuff you travel with?

    Well, for many people, none of that’s necessary. Although the MacBook’s Core-M processor offers lower power than any other Mac — even the iPad Pro benchmarks better — it’s quite enough for what most people do when on the road. Well, if you’re not handling 3D rendering, mathematics or high-energy games. So it has more potential than you might think when you look at the tradeoffs.

    For 2016, there will be no doubt be a refresh, to take advantage of a new, faster generation of Core-M processors that also promise speedier graphics. Both would be useful improvements. Maybe Apple will find a way to drop the starting price to $1,199. Cutting the price of note-books is not uncharted territory for Apple.

    But what about the rest of the Mac lineup?

    Well, the 27-inch iMac is probably going to stay as it is for a while, having had a decent upgrade last year. But there is just one 21.5-inch model with a 4K Retina display. Most of the rest of the line, except perhaps for the entry-level model, will probably be similarly outfitted by the end of the year, at least that’s what I expect. I don’t foresee any changes in the form factor, but it would be nice to be able to upgrade RAM on the smaller iMac. It’s not that it would change the design all that much to give customers something they used to have.

    But most Macs sold these days are note-books, and the MacBook Air and the MacBook Pro have existed with the same form factor for several years, even though the internal components have been regularly upgraded. So is it time for Apple to make them thinner and lighter? What about moving the MacBook Air to all Retina displays? Good question! It may still be about the cost of those displays, but being able to provide the $899 model with Retina would be real nice.

    Regardless, having a fairly low-cost Mac note-book out there, even if it lacks a few features, is actually an important achievement for Apple. The price is still higher than many PC note-books, but it keeps Apple in the ballpark. So I don’t see this model disappearing, any more than I see Apple discontinuing the $1,099 21.5-inch iMac. It may be underpowered, an underachiever, but it is still good enough to put iMacs in the hands of people on a more restricted budget, and some of these potential customers may not even be all that concerned about what they are giving up.

    Back to note-books: With Apple’s penchant for thin, thin, and thinner, it is quite possible there will be all-new MacBook Airs and MacBook Pros. The MacBook has been touted as the forerunner of a future generation of MacBook Airs, though the price is a little higher than one might have expected for an entry-level note-book. But the adoption of USB-C on at least some Macs, perhaps integrated with the new Thunderbolt 3, which uses the same connector, is a near certainty to my way of thinking.

    I hold out little hope that Apple will consider making it possible to upgrade RAM and storage on these new computers, however. It may be that there aren’t enough people out there to sway Apple to move in this direction. I don’t assume the needs of the so-called power user are getting much weight.

    I’m not going to push the envelope to suggest there will be any new models out there.

    I suppose it’s likely that the Mac mini will get a simple component upgrade, but not much else will change. The fate of the Mac Pro is a little cloudier. Apple made a huge splash of breaking the mold for its high-end workstation in 2013. The first units shipped by the end of that year, but Intel has updated its Xeon processors since then, and all we’ve heard from Apple are crickets. So is this model going to fade away out of disinterest? It’s hard to know since Apple has not exactly been forthcoming about actual sales for individual Macs. But this is a showpiece, so I would expect some sort of upgrade.

    That is, unless Apple decides that it needs a Mac workstation that restores some of its former level of internal expansion. The current Mac Pro has been polarizing, but there may not be enough demand for a wholesale revision, or even an alternative. But the original is probably not going away.

    And what about a new line of 4K and 5K displays? It’s about time, but there have been issues of connectors and ports that have, up till now, made it difficult. But I don’t think Apple expects Mac Pro users to continue to go elsewhere when they need high resolution displays.


    The Tech Company We Should Really Worry About

    January 5th, 2016

    As usual with Apple, you’ll read mixed messages from so-called industry analysts on how they’re doing. Some will speak of continued growth, perhaps at a reduced level as markets saturate. Others will speak of no growth at all, or perhaps a contraction, particularly when it comes to iPhones. After all, how many more people are interested in buying one before Apple runs out of customers for high-end gear?

    What about all those companies sniping at its heels? Isn’t it time to face reality, some say?

    While Apple’s stock price has suffered over unproven concerns, supposedly from the supply chain, about possibly lower iPhone sales, there is a large consumer electronics maker that might really be facing serious headwinds: Samsung. But the news doesn’t come from so-called industry analysts reading tea leaves, or pulling the information from dark places. No, it comes right from Samsung.

    According to a USA Today report, quoting Reuters, Samsung’s CEO, Kwon Oh-hyun gave the downbeat forecast. Addressing 500 employees at Samsung’s R&D facility, he stated, “low global growth will persist this year, with greater uncertainty stemming from issues such as financial risks for emerging countries.” He also talked of intensifying competition in the smartphone, TV and memory chip space.

    Now this story got some play, but not much. If anything of that sort happened to Apple, it would have become a front page headline and lead newscasts around the world.

    Samsung was once a poster child for the successful tech giant. It was widely believed that Apple couldn’t possibly compete with those Galaxy smartphones. In the real world, Samsung was never able to deliver the volumes that Apple could sell in high-end gear. When they sold as much in a month as Apple could move in a single weekend, that was supposed to be a good thing.

    Apple, therefore, was in deep trouble. That pronouncement was sometimes accompanied with the usual drivel of Tim Cook being the wrong CEO.

    Overall, Samsung sells more units than Apple, but a hefty percentage are low-end handsets, an area in which Apple chooses not to compete. When last estimated, Apple earned 92% of the smartphone profits for the entire industry. Samsung’s share of profits was 15%. The reason this totals more than 100% is due to the fact that some other entrants in this market actually lose money on handset sales.

    Indeed, you might wonder why some companies bother, but it may be about staying active, hoping to break even and, perhaps, wait for a miracle. Or perhaps it’s all about cash flow. Even if profits aren’t being made, so long as all or most of the manufacturing and marketing costs are covered, that’s acceptable according to some business plans. Perhaps a company earns profits from other markets.

    Indeed, this plays out to a large extent in the PC space. Apple takes most of the profits, but doesn’t match the volume of the largest companies, except for high-end computers. Some pundits and industry analysts suggest Apple should sell cheaper iPhones, iPads and Macs with the goal towards increasing volumes with junk hardware. But Apple has rarely played that game. Well, perhaps with the failed Performa series in the 1990s, but we all saw where that led.

    The long and short of it is that Apple succeeds with premium hardware, and high profits. Customers who aspire to higher quality gear often choose Apple. But it doesn’t follow that the products are necessarily overpriced. Premium smartphones from different makers are priced in the same range, Apple’s economies of scale, in part by having fewer models and being able to leverage the same or similar parts across a larger number of units as a result, keeps the resale prices competitive.

    Sure, Macs are also regarded as overpriced. But when you compare the hardware configurations, with the same or similar parts, the price difference with PCs may be slim to none. On the high end, Apple’s Mac Pro workstation can often be cheaper than any comparable PC.

    True, you may not agree with some of Apple’s design choices, such as the dependance on external expansion in the Mac Pro, or the fact that very few Macs come with the ability to upgrade RAM or a storage device, but that doesn’t make them overpriced either.

    The luxury price argument has been around for a long time. Where Apple seems to fail is in RAM and storage upgrades on the few models where they are available. You can almost always get RAM, hard drives or solid state drives for less money from other companies, at least where comparable parts are available.

    Now considering Samsung’s expected problems this year, their efforts to hold off paying what they owe Apple for patent infringement, and hoping the Supreme Court will want to get involved, is a foolish maneuver. They’d be better off to write the check, and do their best to sell more parts to Apple. That would probably mean higher revenue and profits at a time when increasing sales is going to be difficult. Well, maybe they don’t want to admit wrongdoing, but it’s time to get over it.

    Remember, Apple agreed to pay Italy $350 million in back taxes to resolve a dispute over tax rates. They didn’t drag it out forever with the danger of having to pay far more in interest in penalties as a result. It’s time for Samsung to pay up, and do what can be done to boost revenues and profits.