Ahead of Samsung’s launch of the next-generation flagship smartphone, the Galaxy S4, you could read a fair amount of speculation about how the product would evolve compared to the previous version. Now since many of you will be reading this article after the product is unveiled, I’ll avoid most of the specifics.

The main point is that the device’s predecessor, the Galaxy S3, briefly outsold the iPhone in 2012, and came in third in worldwide sales in the December quarter. Just recently, Macworld and Chicago Sun-Times columnist Andy Ihnatko, a long-time Mac-oriented tech commentator, made a very public announcement about his switch from an iPhone 4s to the Galaxy S3. I have been using one myself, not as a permanent move, but to test the state of the art in Android-land and see what Apple is really up against as the iOS platform matures.

Samsung also sells more mobile handsets than any other company, and manages to be profitable at the same time, which isn’t a given. Sure, Apple earns far higher profits — although industry analysts seem to want to ignore that fact — but Samsung is also playing in a number of market segments where profits are going to be slim to none.

The long and short of it is that you have to take Samsung seriously. Yes, you could argue that Samsung is borrowing software and hardware features, and even marketing ideas, from Apple. At the same time, Apple and Samsung are embroiled in a series of aggressive lawsuits around the world even while the former buys billions of dollars of raw parts from the letter. In passing, it’s also reported that Apple is working hard to reduce dependence on Samsung for anything.

Unlike Apple, Samsung isn’t as careful about having details of a new product leak. That means more details about the hardware nuts and bolts. An example is the confirmation that Samsung would be using the same graphics hardware system, from Imagination, that Apple uses in the iPhones and iPads. Now if Imagination said anything about iPhone or iPad support in advance of the release of new Apple hardware, they would probably be looking for other customers for their technology. Samsung doesn’t have near the penchant for secrecy as Apple, but they still tried to turn the March 14 announcement into a special event.

There’s also an active Android community, where the arrival of the Galaxy S4 has been highly anticipated. But since Samsung doesn’t own the OS, those features are well known. The current version of Android, Jelly Bean, is at 4.2.2, and it is already available on other smartphones. So other than Samsung’s own stuff, not much will seem different compared to the Galaxy S3, which uses, in my AT&T version, Android 4.1.1.

Obviously Samsung can’t control the messaging when it comes to the OS. So their promotional pieces will focus on hardware elements that they believe will separate the Galaxy S4 from the pack. As the time approaches for the next iPhone, now presumed to be a 5S with largely internal changes, there will also be talk about the potential for iOS 7. Those who buy the Samsung can expect to be pretty well stuck with the OS it ships with, and perhaps another revision some months later. It doesn’t matter how quickly Google churns out those updates, or what security lapses have to be fixed. With the Galaxy S4, the final decision about software upgrades will lie with Samsung and their carrier partners.

There are, of course, loads and loads of Android phones, and new ones are being released on a fairly regular basis. HTC’s newest flagship, still called the One, is due to ship shortly, although it appears to have been delayed somewhat. As for the rest: There are just too many to keep track of them all; so many, in fact, that a potential customer must have an awful time picking the one that meets their needs. Quite often differences among similarly priced hardware are minimal, or difficult to fathom if you’re not technically inclined. The software differences may be more significant, for even though they mostly run Android, the handset maker may add their own tweaks and custom apps. Typical of the PC world, carriers will toss in a collection of junkware to help sell you extra-cost services.

At the end of the day, Samsung seems to have more control over the end-user experience than other handset makers, outside of Apple. This means that you will be able to buy a Galaxy S4 from one carrier and have it work mostly the same as one from another carrier, except for the varying amounts of junkware.

The arrival of the new Samsung will be heralded with a costly ad campaign. Even if you don’t care, you’ll hear all about it. Competition is fiercer thane ver, and Samsung is still fighting tooth and nail against Apple for every sale. At the end of the day, however, expect the Galaxy S4 to be a competently assembled handset, reasonably good-looking, and it will perform well. There will be a lot more pressure on Apple to deliver a compelling iPhone/iOS upgrade, and that’s a good thing.

So what market share do you expect the iPad to keep over the next five years? Despite being wrong on more than a few occasions, IDC suggests share will drop from an estimated 51% in 2012 to 43.5% as of 2017. Now that’s not bad for a single company, particularly when you compare the numbers to dozens of companies building all sorts of Android tablets in loads of configurations. But you wonder whether such numbers have any substance.

The first problem, one I’ve mentioned before, is that Apple reports actual sales to real people. Many other tech companies speak of shipments, without letting you in on how many of the units shipped are actually sold and not just held in stockrooms or returned to the manufacturer. Unfortunately, industry analysts such as IDC are not explaining this distinction.

Then again, IDC also predicted that Windows Phone would surpass the iPhone by 2016, and there is no evidence whatever, so far, that Microsoft’s mobile platform has any such potential. As it stands, it’s still all about Android and the iOS, and the rest of the platforms appear to be going nowhere. That being the case — unless there’s some miraculous change in Microsoft’s prospects — I’m not inclined to take IDC very seriously.

Now you wonder why IDC’s numbers tend to show Apple in an unfavorable light, true or not. After all,  the market research company is owned by International Data Group (IDG), which also publishes Computerworld, PCWorld, Macworld and other publications and services that have provided accurate coverage about Apple. IDG even runs the annual Macworld | iWorld Expo.

But I suppose it’s possible that IDC is changing its tune, since the tablet survey doesn’t reveal much love for Microsoft, which it predicts to manage market shares no better than the single digits over the next few years. That’s just dreadful. The way Windows 8 has fared so far, I’m not at all surprised.

I’m also concerned about the media’s blind acceptance of these surveys, seldom mentioning how wrong they’ve been in the past.

So much for IDC.

Now when it comes to other estimates of Apple’s performance, there’s a published report citing Jefferies, an investment firm, as asserting that there’s a 25% chance that Apple will miss its quarterly guidance for this quarter. Hence the price target for AAPL has been lowered from $500 to $420 per share. But doesn’t that mean there’s a 75% chance that Apple will meet or exceed that target? Just asking.

There’s yet another story, this time in the Wall Street Journal (link not deserved), where the alleged commentator in question complains that the next iPhone, the presumed iPhone 5s, won’t ship until September, as if that’s a bad thing. If that’s true, and no such product obviously has been announced so far, it would only be in keeping with the usual annual upgrade process. The non-existent cheap iPhone will supposedly cost between $350-$450. But remember that the iPhone 4 is already available, unlocked, for the upper part of that range, so it would appear nothing will change.

Except that it seems the article was written by someone just talking through his hat, without any real facts to go on, but that’s nothing new when it comes to the quality of Apple coverage nowadays. It seems that one false or misleading story just piles upon another. It’s hard to know which way is up when you read that stuff, and I try to take it all in at one time, so I can spend the rest of my day concentrating on reality, or what passes for reality. And, no, I’m not going to mention the iWatch, which remains a phantom product.

Unfortunately, discussions of this sort can create a sort of bunker mentality. It’s Apple users versus the reset of the world, the sort of condition that existed for many years until Steve Jobs rescued the company. While there doesn’t seem to be much evidence of missteps or severe sales problems, Apple is again perceived as a beleaguered company that somehow survived due to the sweat, guts and genius of one man. Now that he’s gone, nobody else at Apple is capable of running the company. The slightest failures are viewed as major missteps, and Apple must atone for them, and follow the demands of the media and certain industry analysts to set things right.

It doesn’t matter that other companies in far worse situations appear to be getting a pass. Take, for example, Microsoft. Windows 8 sales aren’t exciting customers or even the PC makers. The Surface tablets haven’t taken off, and Windows Phone, despite some positive interface niceties, is not on the short list for potential smartphone buyers. In other words, Microsoft is in deep trouble if things aren’t fixed, but that’s not important. It’s all about Apple.

What about Samsung’s warnings of upcoming profit pressures, as more and more cheap hardware is sold, where earnings aren’t as high as, say, sales for the Galaxy S III? What about the fact that Samsung’s profits last quarter were several billions of dollars lower than Apple on only somewhat lower revenue? Isn’t that a problem? No, Samsung is destined to win the smartphone wars. Sure, Samsung sells more phones than Apple, but Apple earns 69% of the profits. The rest of the handset makers barely compete when it comes to actually making money.

Yes, it’s easy to adopt a bunker mentality, a feeling that Apple is being preyed upon because of success, not failure.

As many of you recall, Apple sustained some executive blood-letting in October, with the forced departure of Scott Forstall, the iOS chief, who had been with Apple since Steve Jobs rejoined the company, and John Browett, who ran the Apple Store, but evidently not too well.

With Forstall, his abrasive personality evidently didn’t sit too well with other Apple executives. In the old days, Steve Jobs was evidently able to serve as an intermediary to deal with the personality issues, but the straw that broke the camel’s back, as it were, was Forstall’s alleged refusal to sign the MapGate apology letter, which only bore Cook’s signature. There may be other reasons that haven’t been discussed in the media, but it’s also clear that failure wasn’t going to be tolerated, and Maps for iOS 6 was perceived, if in an exaggerated way, as an utter failure.

Well, just this week, one financial commentator has decided that these two departures are only the tip of the iceberg, that Apple is poised to suffer from the loss of a number of key people. Why? Well, remember that Forstall and Browett left five months ago without hurting Apple in any visible way. Indeed, Maps has apparently gotten a lot better, and even won out in a three-way comparison, including Google Maps, which was staged by several tech commentators in recent ways.

So why would executives and engineers suddenly decide to leave five months after the event that allegedly triggered their departure? One reason is supposedly the rapid decline in Apple’s stock price, but that would only impact investors and executives who had stock options. And nothing forces them to cash in now. They can always wait with the expectation that things will get better over time. With Apple, they usually do.

Also, you’d think that, if people were so upset with the way Forstall was treated, they’d have packed their bags last fall. Why sit back and wait? Indeed, the reverse may be true. Employees who couldn’t stand Forstall might have been more willing to stay on as a result of his departure. Indeed, hardware executive Bob Mansfield, who had actually signaled his retirement from Apple, took on a new assignment. Reports, not actually confirmed, had it that Forstall and Mansfield were unable to even be in the same room together.

I guess the commentator in question didn’t notice that.

This doesn’t mean Apple is getting away scott free. The stock price is still on the decline, and there are unconfirmed supply chain rumblings of a serious falloff in February sales. Once again, Tim Cook reminded the financial community during January’s conference call with analysts that you cannot take one supply chain metric and understand the entire supply chain. The only indication of sales that seems to have credence is the report from the NPD Group that Mac sales soared 31% in January, perhaps as the result of shipping more iMacs to customers. The updated all-in-one desktop had been severely back ordered since the original releases last year. Supply and demand were not really aligned until the past few days, where Apple began to quote delivery times of 24 hours for standard models, and five to seven days for custom configurations.

Working against Apple is the fact that, aside from a minor refresh of the MacBook Pro with Retina display lineup last month, very little has changed. There hasn’t been that expected preview of OS 10.9, which still may happen soon. There are no Apple media events to introduce, well, something or other, perhaps another revision to the iPad.

Now it may well be true that sales of the iPad have fallen, replaced by the iPad mini. Apple doesn’t mind cannibalizing their own gear, and, with a lower price, it may well be that the mini means more sales for Apple. Nothing wrong with that. The decision to expand the larger iPad lineup with a 128GB version merely means that Apple is trying to attract business customers for whom more storage space would be very useful. As you know, Apple doesn’t offer a slot to install a memory card, an option offered on other tablets.

Facts, however, clearly can’t reduce skepticism about Apple’s future prospects. That ship has sailed. Instead, Apple needs to make some significant product announcements that will help calm investors who are being led to believe that creativity died with Steve Jobs, and that the company is hoping to survive on automatic pilot. Sure that belief may be wrong, but reassurances won’t help. It’s all about the new products in the pipeline and sales and profits.

It won’t hurt if Apple comes up with an iWatch, a big upgrade to the Apple TV box, or even a smart TV alternative. But calls for a low-cost iPhone (low-cost without a carrier subsidy) may fall on deaf ears unless Apple finds a way to make a lower cost product that doesn’t seem cheap. But that assumes Apple wants to play in that sandbox.

In approximately three months, Apple is expected to take the wraps off iOS 7 — and probably OS 10.9 — at the 2013 WWDC. So it’s not too early to consider where Apple has to fix what ails their operating systems, and make them seem more relevant as the competition intensifies.

With the Mac, it was mostly Apple versus Microsoft, a predictable competition since the Windows interface was, for better or worse, a consistent entity. But Android is a far more complicated affair. Apple is not just competing against Google, but with a number of handset makers who produce gear that’s sometimes more than just generic. What’s more, one Android handset may present a very different face than the next.

Samsung puts their own modifications on the OS, HTC has their own variants, and you actually have to go to one of the Google Nexus products to get the pure Android experience. With other gear, Android may be the underlying system, but deeply buried.

Continue Reading…