So we all know that Microsoft plans to unleash the final version of Windows 8 by the end of the year. The key feature is Metro, which replaces the Start menu with the same tiled-based interface theme that has already failed on Windows Phone and the Zune. Otherwise, it’s still just Windows for better or worse.

Sure, there will be a version earmarked for ARM processors, but those using regular PCs, and aren’t enamored of Metro, don’t have an awful lot to chew over. The new feature set, at least so far, seems pretty slim.

Apple’s Mountain Lion, in contrast, promises over 100 new features. Sure, some will be little more than modest enhancements, but there are ten major or tentpole features that are being touted, eight of which are derived from the iPad, such as the Notification Center. In addition, there’s Gatekeeper, an app security feature, and an enhanced version of iCloud that will also be rolled out to iOS users. However, the basic OS X interface will be substantially unchanged, except for an Open/Save dialog box that integrates iCloud for document storage of 10.8-savvy apps. You won’t be saddled with a huge interface change you didn’t want, or didn’t expect.

Sure, these revised apps will impact the the way you use your Mac, unless, of course, you prefer a different browser, chat app, or email client. But they will still run like Mac apps. The Dock won’t change in any noticeable fashion.

But this state of affairs hasn’t stopped some from suggesting Mountain Lion is being rushed to market to address the expected competition from Windows 8, even though Lion was also a foray, one far more intrusive, into infusing iOS-style elements into the OS X. But Lion wasn’t cited as a perceived response to Windows 8; the latter appears to be the case, representing Microsoft’s possibly desperate attempts to attempt to respond to Apple.

The skeptics wonder what Jobs would have said had he been around to run the company, while failing to grasp that Jobs himself may have given the green light to a long-range OS X upgrade path, before his passing, which included Mountain Lion and several successors. Remember, these upgrades are architected several years in advance, although there will obviously be changes along the way as development moves ahead.

Further, if you examine Mountain Lion, you’ll see that, rather than seeming rushed to market, it’s a natural progression from Lion. It’s act two of a multi-act play, and I wouldn’t presume to suggest how many acts there will be, other than that, by the end of the show, the iOS and OS X will still be separate, but with key functionality extremely close. It may well be that future versions of both will track new features almost in sync, but Apple still believes you interact with a desktop and a mobile OS differently. Microsoft just wants to pour as many useless gestures as they can into the Windows 8 stew on a PC, hoping you’ll find something you like.

Indeed, I suppose some might suggest that Windows 8, although it’s expected to arrive three years after Windows 7 appeared, was rushed to market by Microsoft in a desperate attempt to seem relevant in a changing computer landscape. That would explain why Metro was lifted from Windows Phone, and why Microsoft is struggling to build a version for ARM processors that’s intended to run on tablets.

Sure, three years may seem a long time in the world of personal computers, but Microsoft moves far more slowly than other companies.

Now a key reason for these assumptions is the belief that Apple must change drastically because a different person is in charge, even though Tim Cook actually ran Apple for a fair amount of time during the extended sick leaves taken by Steve Jobs. Sure, Cook wouldn’t want to change strategy in the Jobs’ shadow. Sure, Cook’s leadership is more nuanced than Jobs, witness some minor changes in the way the board of directors are elected, and some corporate policies. But there’s no reason to think product development and marketing strategies will be altered soon in any meaningful way.

There’s also the impression that Apple’s decision to let tech journalists in on Mountain Lion a week before the official announcement is a new policy that would have gotten a veto from Jobs. Actually, it’s a return to the past, a move very similar to the way in which the original Mac OS X Public Beta was launched in the fall of 2000. A short time before the release date, a number of tech journalists were given private media briefings by Apple, after which they were presented with copies of the Public Beta installation disc. I got one of those briefings.

By returning to an older marketing plan, Apple didn’t have to stage a major media event just a few weeks ahead of the expected release of the iPad 3. They still got worldwide publicity, and I expect that Mountain Lion will get yet another major media push at the next WWDC, just weeks ahead of the actual release.

Now I don’t pretend to know what really goes on behind the scenes at Apple. All I have are those stories based on alleged “informed sources,” and Apple’s public behavior. But I think I’m on the right side of the argument here.

Sometimes the best laid plans result in failure. Despite pumping hundreds of millions into an action movie, it gets horrible ratings from both reviewers and the public and tanks at the box office. Retail products that seem to offer loads of innovation simply don’t survive for one reason or another.

Let’s not forget that the first Macintosh wasn’t a very good seller. It was regarded, at the time, as too expensive, with no way to upgrade or add expansion cards. Steve Jobs may have been ultimately correct in wanting to turn the personal computer into a user friendly appliance, but the 1984 Mac was just a little ahead of its time.

Despite all the obstacles, Apple held on even after Jobs was forced out. He returned a far more savvy businessperson, recruited or promoted a staff of brilliant designers, engineers and marketing people, and the rest is history. But that doesn’t mean Apple didn’t release some failed products during the second Jobs era.

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Just as developers and Mac users became accustomed to OS upgrades happening every two years, Apple turned that expectation on its head with Mountain Lion. It’s a return to the early days of Mac OS X, where key features had to be fleshed out, and needed features added, so releases were relatively frequent. As the OS matured, Apple indicated that the pace of releases would slow.

Well, they did for a while, but Apple is, if anything, unpredictable. Think about the expected release of the iPhone 4’s successor last summer, which ended up happening in the fall. Apple even suffered a shortfall in iPhone sales and customers hung out on the sidelines waiting for the upgrade. Of course, when the iPhone 4s appeared, despite all the performance boosts and the arrival of the iconic Siri personal assistant, the media attacked Apple because the case looked the same.

Now until last Thursday, the media and industry analysts expected the next version of Mac OS X, which would carry the version number 10.8, would appear some time in mid-2013, although Apple might offer a preview at this year’s WWDC. I even made the same assumption, but I’m pleased to have been proven wrong.

But the impending arrival of Mountain Lion may be more of a threat rather than a promise to some developers who are still struggling to make their apps Lion savvy. While most recent apps run fine under 10.7, there are episodes of flakiness, and forget about support for key Lion features, such as Auto Save and Versions. Sure, neither is perfect, but they’d sure be nice to have in your favorite apps.

This is not to say that Lion-savvy apps will suddenly become incompatible with Mountain Lion, since it merely expands upon 10.7’s features for the most part. So an app can support Auto Save but not the Notification Center, but that shouldn’t be a serious problem. You can still use Growl for alerts, if the app supports that, or at least that’s my assumption since Growl will evidently continue to be developed.

However, a developer in the midst of a Lion update will certainly want to check the Mountain Lion betas and the newest version of Xcode, Apple’s developer software, and developer documentation of course, to see how much further work needs to be done to cover both bases. Or maybe get the Lion version out now, and deal with Mountain Lion down the road. Between now and Mountain Lion’s release, it’s a virtual lock that Apple will continue to make changes, and developers will be chasing a moving target.

From my look at the prerelease version of Mountain Lion, on which current reports about the new OS are based, it doesn’t look all that different when you give it a casual look. It’s not the same as Microsoft, which has  nasty habit of confounding Windows users with such unrequested features as ribbons and the so-far failed Metro interface without really improving the user experience. Even though Apple has overhauled some system apps to closely resemble their iOS cousins, you aren’t forced to change your ways all that much. Messages, which Lion users can download now as a public beta, gives you the very same Buddy List to which you’re already accustomed in iChat. The preferences appear to be mostly the same. The message window is different, for better or worse, but there’s nothing there that will confuse you.

That Address Book has been rebranded as Contacts only makes sense, and the interface has been cleaned up. No big deal. And looking over the rest of Apple’s “tentpole” changes, it does appear that Apple has either improved usability or left well enough alone. Certainly if you’re accustomed to the iOS way of doing things, moving between mobile and desktop will be smoothed.

So it does seem that Mountain Lion is a more mature upgrade than Lion. You aren’t saddled with such controversial interface changes as reverse (or natural) scrolling, and part-time scrollbars. Forget about Launchpad, although a new search feature does make it slightly more usable. To me, Mountain Lion seems more intuitive overall.

But I do wonder what’s going to happen to the Lion upgrade rate among Mac users. Obviously every new Mac will be preloaded with Lion until Mountain Lion takes over, but how many Mac users are going to buy the current upgrade with yet another OS arriving in a few months? If you haven’t already upgraded to Lion, and don’t plan on buying a new Mac anytime soon, there’s no harm in waiting at this point. You see, it does appear from the preliminary documentation that you’ll be able to install Mountain Lion direct from a Snow Leopard installation. Sure, a number of Macs from 2008 and earlier are no longer supported, but that’s nothing new for Apple. You have to expect this four or five-year window of compatibility. Apple would prefer to sell you a new Mac rather than just an OS upgrade.

But that also means that my son’s early 2008 black MacBook dead ends at Lion. As a result, he’s probably going to ask his dad for a present this summer, I expect, so I better start saving.

There’s an immense amount of freedom sitting in front of a computer and putting words on the screen. You can say almost anything you want (but watch the hate speech!), and probably find someone out there who would be willing to read what you say. And maybe agree with you. But that doesn’t necessarily mean you have the power to influence anyone, particularly a multinational corporation.

Now if you’re in a position where others are influenced by your words, you may begin to develop a feeling of power. You tell your audience what to do, and perhaps they’ll listen.

Of course, we all know that Apple Inc. got where they are marching to a different beat. Despite being told that releasing a digital music player in 2001 was a foolish idea, the iPod ended up becoming hugely successful. Despite falling sales (unless you count the iPhone and iPad as iPods of course), the iPad dominates the market by a huge margin.

Certainly the naysayers, which included no less than Steve Ballmer of Microsoft, said that the iPhone was a downright foolish idea. The market was already served well by others, so where did Apple have the temerity to think they could make a dent? But I don’t think those who criticized Apple so much are crying uncle. Instead, they’ve hunkered down, suggesting that Apple’s immense iPhone sales and profits are temporary. The market will right itself soon. Windows Phone will be second behind Android in just a couple of years, even though few care about Microsoft’s mobile platform, except for the companies who are building Windows Phone handsets, and Microsoft of course.

We can’t forget the iPad, the “oversized iPod touch” that many analysts suggested simply couldn’t succeed. Even when iPad sales soared, we were told that the latest tablet from RIM, make that Samsung, make that HP, would succeed. Well, Amazon did do pretty well with the Kindle Fire, but it’s not clear if any of those sales were at the expense of the iPad. It appears they just expanded the market, and, with middling ratings from customers, it’s not at all certain whether the Fire can expand beyond those who just want something — anything — on the cheap. But cheap isn’t so good if the user experience is no better than mediocre.

Just this week, I read reports that some analysts are again suggesting Apple is going to release a 7-inch iPad real soon now. Well maybe in the fall. But maybe it’ll be an 8-inch version instead, the better to expand Apple’s reach in the tablet market. The theory has it that the iPad, though cheaper than many expected before its arrival, is still too expensive for many customers. It’s also a wee bit too large and heavy for single-handed use. That may account for some of the popularity of an Amazon Kindle, but let’s not forget that Apple isn’t into producing loads of models for every perceived market segment. They’ve told us that, their actions agree, so why assume things are going to suddenly change?

Let us not forget that Steve Jobs made a big deal over his expressed belief that a 7-inch tablet was just too small. Better sandpaper your fingers so they’ll be small enough to navigate one of those things.

So far, there’s no indication that, aside from a few organizational and marketing adjustments, that Apple’s core product philosophy is undergoing any substantial change under the leadership of Tim Cook. Indeed, Cook has said that he won’t dismantle the product and marketing strategies put in place by Jobs, and there’s no reason not to take him at his word.

But that doesn’t mean Apple isn’t going to have an iPad mini, though it may not be quite as small as some suggest. If such a gadget does see the light of day, it won’t be because some analyst suggested that Apple needs to build one because they say so.

Sure, if sales of the iPad flagged, I suppose Apple would reconsider their strategy, and perhaps consider lower-cost and/or smaller versions. It’s still quite possible that the current iPad 2 will remain on sale after its successor appears, at a lower price. This will help grab customers who might have considered a Kindle Fire or another lower cost option. Even an 8-inch model would only be a modest concession, although some analysts would pronounce such a product as a vindication of their unproven theories. Maybe Steve Jobs even green-lit one before he passed on.

However, if those analysts are so good at what they do, why are they just talking out of their hats and not running their own multinational corporations to demonstrate that their marketing theories can actually work? Would any company even hire them, or is it far easier to just sit back with coffee in hand and shoot from the hip?

Here at The Night Owl, I’ll tell you what I think, what I’d like to see happen, and even express my concerns from time to time, but I would never presume to suggest I know better than Apple about anything. Microsoft? Well, that’s another story.