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    Last Episode — August 24: Gene presents a regular, tech podcaster and commentator Kirk McElhearn , who comes aboard to talk about the impact of the outbreak of data hacks and ways to protect your stuff with strong passwords. He’ll also provide a common sense if unsuspected tip in setting one up. Also on the agenda, rumors about the next Mac mini from Apple. Will it, as rumored, be a visual clone of the Apple TV, and what are he limitations of such a form factor? As a sci-fi and fantasy fan, Kirk will also talk about some of his favorite stories and more. In is regular life, Kirk is a lapsed New Yorker living in Shakespeare’s home town, Stratford-upon-Avon, in the United Kingdom. He writes about things, records podcasts, makes photos, practices zen, and cohabits with cats. He’s an amateur photographer, and shoots with Leica cameras and iPhones. His writings include regular contributions to The Mac Security Blog , The Literature & Latte Blog, and TidBITS, and he has written for Popular Photography, MusicWeb International, as well as several other web sites and magazines. Kirk has also written more than two dozen books and documentation for dozens of popular Mac apps, as well as press releases, web content, reports, white papers, and more.

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    A Look at Apple Rumors for 2010

    January 13th, 2010

    The feeding frenzy over stories about a possible tablet computer from Apple has consumed the tech media in recent weeks, but don’t forget that we’re talking about one product that is supposed to be launched this month. That leaves plenty of time for more mischief and speculation as to what Apple is going to deliver during the rest of 2010.

    A new wrinkle on the iSlate/iTablet speculation front is that the expected media event later this month will also include a MacBook Pro refresh, sporting the latest Core i5 chips from Intel. Early benchmarks demonstrate the new processors are quite a bit faster than their predecessors from the Core 2 Duo family without requiring extra power. Now this sort of speed bump would not be unexpected. Apple’s note-books have already had revised case designs, so popping in faster processors and other enhanced parts every six or 12 months would be par for the course.

    An unexpected surprise might be a revision to the aging MacBook Air lineup, which remains in production despite apparently being a slow seller. Then again, the folks who have embraced the Air may be quite as dedicated as the customers who stuck by the Mac mini even when Apple wasn’t putting a priority on refreshing the cheapest Mac desktop.

    The next refresh would probably impact the Mac Pro by spring, to take advantage of the newest Xeon processors. Again, this would be a trivial upgrade, since Apple doesn’t seem inclined to put lots of development dollars into a model that doesn’t sell a lot of copies, particularly now that the quad-core iMac has become a viable alternative for people who want a powerful Mac that’s still reasonably affordable.

    Then again, Apple’s environmental initiative might be sufficient to inspire them to streamline the Mac Pro. I have suggested that they could trim the case by as much as 50% and still provide the same degree of expandability. Greenpeace would be delighted, although cooling system concerns might limit the level of shrinkage.

    I wouldn’t expect much in the way of changes for the iMac, except to include later generation chips from Intel. The new form factor has been an incredible success. But I could always dream for an update that would add space for a second internal drive. That might address a fair portion of the needs of folks who feel the iMac is too restrictive about such things. And, yes, I think Apple is smart enough to find space for another full-sized hard drive.

    Expectations for the fourth generation iPhone vary. Some suggest it might come as early as April, others stick with the June or July timeframe, following a launch at the WWDC, where the version 4.0 software and developer’s kit will be introduced.

    You can expect the iPhone to have pretty much the same form factor as today’s model, perhaps sporting a multicore processor and extra built-in memory with which to store more complicated OS code. Maybe Apple will even find a way to allow for enhanced multitasking in light of the competition. But I rather doubt that those recent rumors of a removable battery will come to pass. That’s just not Apple’s way.

    The “X’ factor is Mac OS 10.7. As Snow Leopard approaches its one year anniversary, you can bet that Apple is working hard on 10.6’s successor. I would also expect that it’ll be a feature-laden release. Apple has had plenty of time to rest on its laurels and its time to take Mac OS X to even greater heights. The question, of course, is what features do they really need to add? So far, most of what I’ve seen represents refinements to the current way of doing things. I’m quite sure Apple’s developers have lots of brilliant ideas cooking in the code mines, and maybe they’re ready to unleash some of them in the next system upgrade.

    One possibility is how Apple might address the inevitable 3D question. I’m not talking about shaded borders and other modest enhancements to the 2D motif. The world is ready for 3D, particularly in light of the great success of the science fiction movie “Avatar.” Now that the consumer electronics companies are devising schemes to separate you from your money when you buy new gear and 3D glasses to go with those gadgets, surely a practical use can be found for increasing the apparent depth of the legendary Mac desktop.

    Moving towards the fall, September will no doubt bring the next generation iPod lineup. I wouldn’t be surprised to see enhanced camcorder capabilities for the iPod nano, perhaps with an HD chip to take it closer in performance to the Flip Video. The iPod classic may be resurrected with 128GB of Flash memory, and none too soon. And don’t be surprised if the iPod touch gets its own camcorder features at long last.

    Notice I’ve said nothing about the Apple TV. Apple’s “hobby” gadget is long overdue for an upgrade, but what direction will they take? Will Apple acquire TiVO or just add their own brand of DVR capabilities? What about a 3D Apple TV? Let the fun and games begin!


    More Uncritical Media Assumptions

    January 12th, 2010

    You just knew when Google introduced the Nexus One that it had to be the ultimate iPhone killer. After all, it was Google, and the Android platform is new and sexy. Well, anyway it’s new, so it just has to succeed.

    The reality appears to be something else again. The Nexus One is a rebadged HTC phone, in the tradition of what Microsoft did when it used a Toshiba digital media player and transformed it into the Zune. That hardly makes the Nexus One brand new, but it also appears that Google is coming to realize that you can’t become a consumer electronics powerhouse overnight.

    What happens, for example, if you need tech support? Google doesn’t have a credible reputation for customer service, and customers are also being sent to HTC or T-Mobile, the lone carrier supporting the device so far. Or just wait a few days and hope for an email response. A company can’t build a support infrastructure overnight, so it may take painful months to sort things out, which leaves early adopters in the lurch.

    Then there’s the issue of early termination. If you’re paying $529 for an unlocked device, you presume that’s the list price. But after the initial 14-day return period, if you decide to sent the product back, you’re going to be saddled with a $350 Equipment Recovery Fee during the first four months. Add that to the $200 termination fee from T-Mobile during the same period if you cancel your wireless contract, and you can see how the Nexus One becomes really expensive really fast.

    Worse, by selling an “official” Android phone, Google is conveying the impression that they are throwing their other hardware partners under the bus. What about Motorola, which has achieved some success with the Droid? Oh yes, they’re with Verizon Wireless, but isn’t there going to be a Verizon version of the Nexus One some day soon?

    It appears here that Google may be falling into the same trap as Microsoft when the Zune came out. Despite assurances that the existing PlaysForSure partners wouldn’t be impacted, the Zune simply cannibalized sales from those products. The impact to Apple’s iPod was little to none. You would think Google would learn the nasty lessons of history, but things aren’t that simple. As I said, Google is new to the consumer electronics world and there’s a lot to learn, and plenty of mistakes will be made along the way.

    True, Apple was also a novice when it came to building and selling smartphones. But the company also had over three decades of experience as a consumer electronics manufacturer. They have made loads of mistakes over the years, and presumably learned from most of them. They also have a roster of skilled marketing executives that know how to assess a market, stake out territory and sell loads of profitable gadgets.

    Where is Google’s expertise or do you assume they will be successful because they are large and the company’s name has become a verb for searching the Internet?

    That takes us to the rumored Apple tablet computer. This week at the CES, several PC makers decided to stage preëmptive strikes and release their own competing products. What’s lost in this discussion is the fact that tablet computers have been available for years. Rather than revolutionize the industry, they have found a decent niche in vertical markets, such as medical offices. The tablet for the masses is the dream that has yet to be realized, and there’s no guarantee Apple can change things.

    On the other hand, the unexpected success of the iPhone and the fact that Apple managed to withstand the global economic meltdown better than most companies have made the company seem invulnerable. Other than rumors of a 10.1-inch screen, nobody knows what form this product will take? Will there be a large vertical keyboard, a smaller version sized similarly to the one on the iPhone, or even a physical keyboard reminiscent of Apple’s grown-up Newton handheld device, the eMate 300? Or maybe there will be some sort of handwriting recognition system where you let your fingers do the writing. What about voice recognition?

    Some suggest that the iSlate, or whatever it’ll be called, will sport a hybrid operating system that supports not just iPhone apps, but regular Mac OS X apps as well. If true, this gadget might become a credible replacement for a note-book for many potential customers, although I’m still on the fence as the best way to implement a text entry season.

    As I’ve already said, I’m not at all certain that I have a place for a tablet computer in my gadget tool bag. I also suspect there are loads of people out there who are equally skeptical. But I don’t think Apple wants another Cube on its hands. The stakes are much higher now, which may explain why this product has germinated for a number of years.

    The media expects Apple to succeed. That’s a huge change from the time when skeptical voices ruled the day. But there’s still that annoying tendency to look at any potentially credible competitor as a genuine “killer” product of one sort or another. This is why the Nexus One has gotten so much favorable press, even though it’s not so different from existing gear and has lots of problems that aren’t directly related to whether the product is good or bad or somewhere in between.


    So How Does Apple Fill Product Gaps?

    January 11th, 2010

    When you don’t know what’s going on with Apple, it’s perfectly reasonable to look over their product lineup and see what gaps might be filled. That, alas, can be a double-edge sword.

    Take the desktop lineup. Three models, but no affordable expandable model. The Mac Pro is simply too rich for most Mac users, and, despite its incredible number-crunching capability and the loads of expansion opportunities, most owners never go beyond adding RAM or maybe a second internal hard drive. Indeed, my last two Mac Pros were outfitted in just that fashion, although I did upgrade from the stock graphics card during the initial purchase, since those cards tend to be rather underpowered for such a costly product.

    So looking for opportunities, some Mac authors (including your humble author) posited a midrange minitower or perhaps a headless iMac that would offer essentially the same performance as Apple’s mainstream desktop but afford additional opportunities to add stuff internally. This harkens back to the legendary Mac IIcx and its successors, which were quite compact for what they offered.

    As with any decision about whether to market a new product, Apple has to consider its sales potential. They are surely stung by the total failure of the Cube, although it was clear from the outset that, despite its legendary looks, it was underpowered and offered limited opportunity for expansion. Indeed, today’s Mac mini is a far better fit compared to where the Cube was situated during its limited lifetime.

    So the question remains: How many of you are buying iMacs in the interests of compromise, rather than a mid-priced minitower? Indeed, Apple is still selling loads of them, and they are only now beginning to catch up on the dual-core versions of the 27-inch model, which now have only seven-day delivery delays. The quad-core versions were still at two weeks when this article was written.

    In light of that stellar success, some of which I gather might have been unexpected, perhaps Apple has no real incentive to expand the product lineup even further. I mean what percentage of Mac users and potential PC switchers would actually buy such a headless iMac if it existed, and how many of them would simply settle for the iMac and the Mac mini? Unless the numbers justify the investment of a new design, then Apple isn’t going to even consider the possibility. Remember, too, that Apple is likely still chafing over the proliferation of Mac models during the 1990s, which reached the point that even the top executives couldn’t figure out which was which.

    When it comes to other product categories, you can bet that Apple won’t be building digital cameras, printers and loads of other commodity gadgets that are well supplied by the industry (even though they did have some of these products in the past). Even though I’d like to see alternatives to the various aluminum keyboards, the Apple Mouse and the Magic Mouse, I don’t expect to see them from Apple. You can certainly find what you what from loads of third parties now, so where’s the incentive for Apple, unless they decide they can make a real difference? For now, the Magic Mouse is the difference!

    For mobile devices, it’s doubtful that Apple will expand the iPhone lineup beyond perhaps having a CDMA version for Verizon Wireless. If the iSlate appears as widely expected, and I am certain some of that speculation is being fueled by Apple’s corporate communications people, the offering will be simple. Maybe there will be a couple of versions with different memory configurations, or perhaps two screen sizes, but that will be it. Apple is obsessive about simplicity.

    More to the point, Apple isn’t going to build a product because a journalist or financial analyst decrees that it must be so. Although some of you are wishing and hoping for an Apple flat panel TV, I would be surprised to see anything in that category. Indeed, you might regard the 27-inch iMac as a flat panel television set that happens to include a personal computer as part of the package.

    Again, where are the product gaps among TVs that Apple must fulfill? More and more new models have Internet connections so you can get streaming content from Netflix and other vendors. If you already have an expensive TV and you’re not into replacing it right now, you can buy a Blu-ray deck from LG, Samsung and other companies that include the ability to get online.

    Sure, I suppose the Apple TV could be expanded into a real large screen TV that contains the same features as the current model, and adds a true DVR that would let you connect to your cable or satellite provider, along with some straightforward computing capabilities. But at what cost, and how many of you would be willing to buy one? Would 3D capability make the difference?

    When Apple created the iPod and iPhone, they felt that existing products were subpar and that they could build something better. History demonstrates they were right in both cases. That may also be true for a tablet computer, but where do they go from here? That’s where the informed speculation can only begin.


    Newsletter Issue #528: The Deaf Ears of Apple and Microsoft

    January 10th, 2010

    When a company becomes set in its ways, the door to potential disaster looms. This may well be why Chrysler and GM had to run to the government for a bailout when the market changed right under them, whereas Ford, which had executives with greater foresight, we ready to cope with the economic downturn and its aftermath.

    There are also general agreement among more and more members of the tech media that Microsoft has also turned itself into one huge dinosaur, and they are struggling to make the company relevant for the 21st century. This explains why they continue to look for ways to move beyond the core operating system, office suite and server business and expand their consumer electronics and search offerings.

    Microsoft’s problem, however, is that they have no taste. They continue to believe that simply adding features is the proper approach to building better products and services. What their executives don’t understand that the new features have to actually enhance functionality, not just add to the complexity or provide useless eye candy.

    Take the Bing search system. I suppose the name is designed to convey a eureka moment of some sort, but it ends up having no significance in a world where the major player in search, Google, has become a verb. More to the point, recent tests indicate that Bing tries to outsmart Google in some of its search results, but ends up only making the process less intuitive and helpful.

    Continue Reading…