You may not believe this, but IDC long ago predicted that Windows Phone would take over the number two spot in the smartphone market. I caught one of those predictions in a story dating back to June of 2011. At the time, iOS had an 18.2% share of the market, and Android had 38.9%.

Windows Phone? Well, IDC predicted its share would increase from 3.8% to 20.3% by 2015, thus replacing iOS in the runner-up spot. Apple’s share would decline to 16.9%.

Surprisingly, IDC was pretty close to the mark with iOS. Its share depends on the time of year, but has, in the last two holiday quarters, been estimated at over 17%. That’s close enough.

But IDC failed to grasp Android’s growth at the expense of everyone else. So in the past two holiday quarters, Google’s Android platform has maintained market shares in the mid-80s. This is according to stats from Statistica. I’ll grant that other numbers vary a little here and there, but the basics are similar.

Windows Phone?

Microsoft’s share shrank to 0.3% in the holiday quarter of 2016, and is now less than a rounding error. I do hope IDC feels embarrassed at how it misread the smartphone market so badly, particularly Microsoft’s ability to go somewhere from what was, even then, a pretty low market share. Perhaps the study was done through rose colored glasses, assuming Microsoft’s previous successes meant such successes must continue in the mobile space.

To add insult to injury, there’s a published report of a recent high-profile Windows Phone defection. So two years ago, the NYPD purchased 36,000 Nokia smartphones running Windows Phone for the nation’s largest police force. Two years later, all of these devices will be “decommissioned,” taken out of service. iPhones will replace them.

According to a published report, the decision to go with Microsoft was made by a single person rather than a committee studying such a deal.

Notice nothing was said about considering Android instead.

Now it’s not as if Microsoft fought hard to keep the market. The NYPD purchased the Lumia 830, and the Lumia 640. Both were abandoned by Microsoft on July 11.

I suppose it’s possible that the person who made this unfortunate decision, Jessica Tisch, the department’s Deputy Commissioner for Information Technology, might just have had unrealistic expectations of Microsoft and its smartphone platform. But the Windows Phone market share at the time was a mere 2.3%. It couldn’t have been that flawed estimate from IDC, because it specified 2015 as the year that Windows Phone would beat iOS, and that ship had already sailed.

Now I’m not about to suggest that there was anything unsavory in the NYPD’s decision to go Microsoft. Maybe the Nokia people with whom the IT person communicated gave them a misleading — or overly optimistic — picture of the platform’s potential. It may well be that these Lumia devices gave totally satisfactory performance during those two years, and the decision to change was strictly due to Microsoft’s decision to pull the plug. But Microsoft clearly didn’t care about NYPD or its needs, or isn’t paying attention anymore.

On one level, this is unfortunate. The smartphone market is a two-horse race, even though there are loads of makers of Android gear. But most Android handsets are more similar than different, and, except for the latest Galaxy devices from Samsung and a smattering of other models, most of the market is dominated by cheap gear. You might compare that to the PC market, where most of the machines sold are also cheap without much in the way of distinguishing features.

Nokia smartphones have by and large been well reviewed. But it’s clear Microsoft made a huge mistake buying the division. I thought they might have learned a thing or two from Google’s unfortunate decision to acquire Motorola Mobility.

The purchase of Nokia in 2014 cost Microsoft $7.2 billion. It was one of the final significant decisions from former CEO Steve Ballmer before he left the company and got into the sports business. Clearly his replacement, Satya Nadella, had other priorities, and eventually gave up on the division.

Besides, what’s $7.2 to Microsoft?

I could argue that Microsoft isn’t doing terribly well with Surface PCs and tablets either, but since tech pundits are overlooking the tepid sales and imagining they are major factors in the industry, I suppose there’s hope.

Well, except for the public’s reaction. Imagine if the iPhone, early in its existence, suffered from flat or declining sales quarter after quarter. Do you think it would have ever carried Apple to the market position it occupies today?

In any case, there’s little point attacking Microsoft for its failed mobile strategy. Today’s Microsoft does better with cloud services and Office 365. Windows license sales are decent. People are still buying Xbox gaming consoles.

Microsoft has some different ideas with the Surface, but that was true with Windows Phone, yet customers went elsewhere.

But it’s a curious world. The critics expect Microsoft to succeed and Apple to fail. It’s all about backwards logic.

Here we go again. Yet another story about an alleged iPhone 8 feature that is just bound to be dangerous. The disconnect is so obvious that you wonder how some so-called responsible publications manage to publish such wacky stories and imagine they make sense.

So let’s put this in perspective. The alleged iPhone 8 is reputed to have facial recognition, specifically identified as Pearl ID. This is based on that infamous leaked HomePod firmware. If true, it doesn’t really say much or anything about the technology or its possible advantages over the competition. What we do know is that Samsung doesn’t have a reliable record with its biometrics. So the Galaxy S8’s facial recognition is readily defeated with a photograph.

In other words, it’s useless.

That takes us to an article from Mashable on the subject. But notice that such an article wasn’t published when the Samsung smartphones came out. Instead, they waited until mere weeks before Apple’s new iPhone is expected to be announced.

So they found “half a dozen experts” who reportedly claim that facial recognition is “a lose-lose situation” that will create security and privacy issues.

Take a deep breath, and consider once again that there is no iPhone 8, nor has Apple announced such a product or its possible feature set. The rumors point to facial recognition presumably because they weren’t able to make a front-mounted Touch ID work with an OLED display. Samsung had to put theirs in the rear, which makes for an awkward reach, so, therefore, Apple must have the same problem.

Of particular concern is the report that the iPhone’s facial recognition scheme will be capable of scanning faces while the unit is lying face up on a table.

Does it? I have no idea, since no such product exists.

The argument is that “always on” must be gathering data and therefore might get the wrong kind of data, about people other than the ones for whom the device is configured. Somehow this means that Internet criminals might be able to break in. But does that even make sense? After all, if the alleged iPhone 8 can only be unlocked by those who set up configuration profiles, in the spirit of Touch ID, how would that create a potential security problem? How would that hurt your privacy?

The article goes on to suggest ways Apple can alleviate potential security issues. Again, nobody outside of Apple or some of its suppliers knows how this feature is being implemented, and the safeguards that are being used to provide a safe user experience. That it’s always on should not mean that a hacker will have his or her way. That would still require finding a way to break in and make it recognize someone else’s face.

What I do expect is that, if there is a facial recognition feature on a forthcoming iPhone, Apple would make damn sure it isn’t susceptible to breaking via a photograph. Your privacy should not be a factor unless Apple is gathering your information, especially in a way that allows you to be identified. But that’s precisely what Touch ID does not do, and I fully expect that a 3D facial recognition feature would be similarly secure.

After all, why bother to have such a feature, one required for secure mobile transactions and logins, without the proper degree of protections? Does that make any sense to you?

Remember, this is Apple, not Samsung. Samsung is a company that doesn’t seem to be concerned about biometrics that aren’t secure. And I haven’t considered the recent legal troubles confronted by the company’s CEO. Well, except this: If Tim Cook had been caught engaging in financial fraud, how long would he last as head of the company? A day, an hour, five minutes? Not very long.

And Apple would be in the headlines for months trying to distance itself from the transgressions of a key executive. Sales would be harmed, the stock price would tank. You get the picture. It wouldn’t be very pretty.

But it goes to show that Samsung can get away with flawed products and crooked executives without apparently suffering very much from its shame.

In any case, I suppose the Mashable piece, to which I haven’t provided a link, will offer the proper level of fear mongering for those who feel that Apple must be in serious trouble and in danger of delivering a flagship 10th anniversary iPhone that contains serious product flaws.

It also goes to show that Mashable hasn’t a clue what’s really going on, or what precautions Apple has taken. But there are always so-called industry experts who are only too happy to talk about such matters as theories, rather than realities, and focus on the bad things that could happen.

Now if and when Apple introduces an iPhone with facial recognition, it will be fair for critics to evaluate the feature and make sure it’s secure and provides the level of user privacy that is part and parcel of the Apple experience. If there are problems, they should be reported.

But just to speculate on something that doesn’t exist, with no awareness of what that something will actually do, doesn’t make me feel warm and fuzzy about those alleged experts. And, no, I won’t name them. They don’t deserve the publicity.

Let’s put it this way: If someone from a polling company called you up and asked about your buying plans for the next month, or the next year, how would you respond? If you did provide some answers, what sort of responses would you give, and just how serious would you take such questions?

After all, would you follow those purchase plans to the letter, or are you just thinking about them casually? Now I suppose if you were hoping to buy a new home, had the mortgage approved along with a realtor actively searching a suitable location for you, the chances are high that you’ll follow through.

I suppose the same might be said for that new car you’ve been eyeing. The 2018 models will be arriving at the showrooms over the next few weeks — well most of them — and perhaps that old clunker is, well, clunking. Again, a purchase plan would likely be carried out. I will grant that, unless you are always loyal to a certain make or model, what you end up buying might change.

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Let me just go through all this again, because it seems that some of the chronic Apple critics have nothing better to do than repeat the same old nonsense no matter how many times you correct them.

One method to denigrate Apple is to make a survey that not only puts them in a bad light, but is factually baseless because focuses on things that don’t exist. But surveys appear — or are meant to appear — to have some level of credibility.

So consider the dueling surveys about possible interest in the rumored iPhone 8 and brand loyalty. So there’s a report from Barclays analyst Mark Moskowitz claiming that less than one in five people who own iPhones would be willing to pay the rumored higher price for the alleged tenth anniversary model.

He is quoted as saying:

While the device itself seems more evolutionary than revolutionary, we believe this launch represents the return of staunch competition into the premium segment ($700+ ASP) of the smartphone market following Samsung’s Note 7 debacle last year. For Apple, we are concerned that the company needs to meet momentous investor expectations following the expected launch of three new iPhone devices in September. This could be made more challenging when considering that only 18% of potential iPhone buyers are willing to spend $1,000+ for a new device (Wireless Subscriber Survey; 08/09/17), which is below the 30-35% figure investors seem to be expecting.

To put this in perspective, obviously there is no iPhone 8; no such product has been announced by Apple. Obviously you cannot specify a price for something that doesn’t exist. You can make educated guesses, considering that the most expensive model from the current lineup, the iPhone 7 Plus, is $969 with 256GB storage. With tax, that IS a dreaded $1,000 iPhone, and people are already buying them in pretty decent quantities.

But even if the number is as low as suggested, it’s still represents hundreds of millions of potential customers. Obviously, most iPhone owners do not buy the most expensive models anyway, so how does this represent anything more than what you might realistically expect?

The implication, however, is that Apple might be doing something wrong in charging fair market value for a premium product. That, of course, assumes the rumors of the iPhone 8 and its potential prices are mostly correct.

Now in the world of dueling surveys, there is yet another, from Fluent, which counters fears from Barclays that a fair number of iPhone users might move to Samsung because of  Apple’s high prices — or something or other. This survey claims only 5% of iPhone owners are going to abandon ship. Considering the brand’s traditionally high loyalty levels, that appears to make sense.

In any case, a proper survey should accurately reflect customer loyalties and other factors. It shouldn’t be skewed to prove a particular point of view. But some surveys are designed to deliver a specific result.

Now to put things in perspective, I was checking out the pricing of the forthcoming Samsung Galaxy Note 8. This is the successor to last year’s Galaxy Note 7, which had a penchant for overheating and bursting into flame. After a pair of recalls failed, the product was discontinued, and Samsung has taken the year to supposedly set things right. Or perhaps to give the public time to forget the entire miserable affair.

Regardless, iPhones will debut and sell for Apple’s regular retail price. In the months that follow, wireless carriers will offer special deals to persuade you to sign up for their service. So you might get a rebate on your existing gear, for example, to cover what you owe your present carrier to tempt you to switch. Maybe there will be a two-for-one discount. Here a carrier may be willing to sacrifice profits to gain new customers, which is a normal way of doing business.

But when a new product is discounted before it even ships, you wonder about the manufacturer’s confidence that it’ll be successful. Don’t forget all those heavy discounts on the Samsung Galaxy S8 almost as soon as it went on sale. I’m already seeing discounts if you preorder the Galaxy Note 8. Best Buy is touting discounts of up to $150 on a device that will evidently be priced similar to the 256GB iPhone 7 Plus.

Overall, it seems remarkable how much bandwidth is being consumed in speculating about the bad things that may hurt a forthcoming Apple gadget. You do not, for example, see similar levels of fear mongering about something new from Samsung. So it is assumed Samsung is destined to be successful, even if its gear contains serious flaws. With Apple, the critics write fake news about potential defects and their impact.

Don’t forget the run-up to the iPhone 7, where its lack of a headphone jack was treated as a serious failure. That it closely resembled its predecessor was also a negative, and consider all that talk about an iPhone 8 that was in full force last year. Indeed, it has not let up.

You ought to be surprised that anyone bought the 2016 iPhones considering that a much better model was supposed to arrive this year. But now you could say the same thing about next year’s iPhones, so why buy one at all? After all, it’ll be even further improved in 2019.

Just save your money and live in a bubble. Yeah, that’s the ticket! Or buy a Samsung? But what about next year’s Galaxy, and the one the year after that?