10So when Apple decided to make a big deal of the 10th anniversary of the iPhone last week, I was somewhat surprised. Apple hasn’t been that big about doing such things. All right, we had the overpriced, underpowered 20th anniversary Macintosh — which celebrated the birth of the company rather than the platform — that did nothing to honor the success of the platform. Well, maybe it wasn’t such a success in those days, but it was an easy computer to ignore.

While Apple is rarely forthcoming about future plans, some suggest that the company has big changes in the works for the fall 2017 iPhone launch. Maybe it won’t be an iPhone 7s, but an iPhone 8 with a wrap-around OLED display. It may also have wireless charging. The rest will consist of the usual refreshes one expects from a year-to-year upgrade. Or perhaps there will be one premium model to accompany the iPhone 7s and iPhone 7s Plus.

But when you consider the future, it doesn’t hurt to consider the past.

I remember watching the video stream of the 2007 Macworld Expo keynote, when Steve Jobs unveiled the first iPhone. Although I had usually attended such events, I didn’t that year. I’m not altogether sure if there was a compelling reason other having too much to do to allow for spending a few days away from the home office.

In any case, that first iPhone was quite limited compared to the current model. At a time when wireless networks were rolling out 3G service, best you could get from AT&T was EDGE, based on 2G technology. It was faster than dial-up, but not significantly so. But having a smartphone with a real web browser and an email client was a revelation. While some attacked the concept of typing on glass rather than a physical keyboard, it’s clear Apple knew where the technology should go. The rest soon followed, and BlackBerry — well, we all know what happened to BlackBerry.

Apple’s reason for choosing AT&T, then Cingular Wireless, was a matter of control. Unlike all other contracts with wireless carriers, Apple had full control over their devices, from support, to the software and OS updates. You didn’t have to hope and pray the carrier — or the manufacturer — would push a critical security update. Indeed, that’s the problem that still afflicts Android after all these years. In its quest for alleged openness, Google did not exert meaningful controls over what the carriers and handset makers could do to foul up the bundled software collection, nor demand that the OS receive needed updates.

The first iPhone was also restricted to web-based apps other than Apple’s own. That shortcoming was remedied the following year when the App store debuted. The next generation iPhone 3G supported a faster network architecture that offered decent broadband speeds.

It took several years before Apple built a CDMA version of the iPhone for Verizon Wireless. These days, hundreds of carriers and independent vendors around the world sell iPhones. But nobody exerts control over the device except for Apple.

Now I don’t know how many of those original iPhones are still in use, but as of January 1 of this year, they lost access to AT&T’s 2G data network, because it was shut down. The version one iPhone can still connect to a Wi-Fi network, but that doesn’t mean you can make phone calls on it.

AT&T’s excuse for the decision is to repurpose the spectrum for use on faster LTE networks. While Apple sold six million copies of that original iPhone, I really wonder just how many are still in service. I also understand why AT&T might want to reuse that capacity for more profitable pursuits. The growth of technology over the next decade has been incredible, just incredible. Today’s 4G LTE is capable of speeds of up to 300 megabits, although I dare say you’ll probably never encounter that level of performance with the most capable smartphone on a top-flight network. 5G can manage up to 3.6 gigabits and it’s a sure thing that mobile handsets will be updated soon enough to support that level of performance when the new network architecture is launched.

As the original iPhones are finally retired from active service, you see just one more downside of modern technology. Useful life is extremely short and may only grow shorter.

But you could take an original typewriter from the late 19th century and, if you can find a compatible ribbon, and it’s in decent shape, you can still type a book manuscript on one. The same can be said for electric typewriters, such as an IBM Selectric. I used to have a Smith-Corona electronic typewriter with limited word processing capabilities, which was purchased in the 1980s. Ribbons are still being sold for it. If it’s in decent operating condition, I could still use it — if I still had one.

On the other hand, I suppose I should feel lucky that Macs from 2010 can run macOS Sierra. But I have less hope for Sierra’s successor, which is expected this fall. There is something to be said about the original input devices, typewriters. They still work, and there are people out there who can repair them if need be. You also lived in a world where getting online was an alien concept. In a world where you are expected to be constantly connected to something-or-other, maybe there’s something to be said about the good old days.

As many of you know, I prefer large displays on my computers. I’m in my element with a 27-inch iMac, but Mac notebooks are far more limiting for all sorts of practical reasons. Up until 2011, Apple offered the MacBook Pro in a 17-inch version; I got mine the previous year, and the year-to-year improvements were minor.

I’m still using it.

Now there are sensible reasons for me to hang onto it. One is that I was battered and bruised by the 2007 recession, which hasn’t ended to this day for some people. I acquired the computer as a trade-out for advertising on The Tech Night Owl LIVE, so there was no out-of-pocket expense, and I picked up some cash selling my old notebook.

Such is business.

Aside from the cost of a new computer, there’s another reason to keep what I have, and that’s the display size. When Apple went to a Retina display in 2012, the screens topped out at 15 inches. No doubt the cost of the high resolution displays was one key factor. Another the fact that the larger MacBook Pro was not a terribly good seller, so why not just kill it off?

Even if I was willing to make the sacrifice, and there is an advantage to saving a few pounds when lugging one of those things in a case across an airport terminal, I’m content with what I have. But I had to make modifications to keep it going, and get decent performance.

One thing that always bothered me with older Apple’s notebooks was the glacial drive performance. Using a tiny hard drive had its shortcomings, and that hurt even if those machines otherwise had sufficient processing power. So when I had a chance to review of 500GB SSD from Other World Computing, I jumped at the opportunity.

As you know, Apple has since switched entirely to SSDs for Mac portables. It made a world of a difference.

But Apple really didn’t want you, even then, to upgrade those machines. It wasn’t just the choice to seal the case with tiny pentalobe screws. It’s not that you can’t find the screwdrivers, and some SSD vendors supply them for you for no additional charge. But you have to be real careful during the disassembly process. They’re easy to lose, as I discovered the first time I tried. But OWC took pity on me and sent me a few replacements. I should have put them in a cup; or use an ash tray if you have one around.

The installation process of the new drive took maybe 15 or 20 minutes. I didn’t run the stopwatch, but it was no big deal to remove the case,. extract the drive, and plugin the replacement. I received an external case for the MacBook Pro’s original hard drive. It made it easy to restore my stuff when the time came.

I’ll be brief: The MacBook Pro is much faster, since the drive-based slowdowns are history. I later doubled RAM to 8GB, but the performance improvement was marginal. As I reported earlier this month, my efforts to install macOS Sierra were curiously troublesome. At first the installer displayed a message that I needed to update Apple’s server software first, even though I wasn’t running OS X Server. Installing via the Internet Recovery feature worked fine, and performance is still quite good.

Over the holidays, my son spent a couple of weeks here on a visit from his apartment in Madrid. He traveled light, meaning his 13-inch MacBook Air, circa 2015, stayed home. So he adopted my notebook, and we both realized the battery was on its last legs. It would usually crap out after two or three hours, and the MagSafe adaptor no longer displayed a full charge indicator. After nearly seven years, even with light use, it was time to make what I hope will be the last change or fix to this device. When I do sell it — and maybe that’ll happen late this year if all goes well — I’d like to command the best price.

So I got ahold of OWC again to see what they were offering. While batteries for those older MacBook Pros are readily available — quite unlike some newer models where replacing anything may be difficult or impossible — I was urged to be careful by a few friendly power users. Some of the reviews at Amazon were also discouraging, as the really cheap batteries may not deliver performance that’s comparable to Apple’s original equipment spec of 8-9 hours.

In contrast, OWC promises up to 8% greater performance for its replacement battery. So I asked if they’d be wiling to send me one for review; I will decide later whether to actually buy it, go cheap, or save my money. It’s on the way, and should be here in another day or two.

When I’m ready to buy a new MacBook Pro, I will obviously have to settle for a 15-inch maximum display size. There are some Windows notebooks still available with 17-inch displays, but most models top out at nearly same size as Apple — 15.6-inches compared to Apple’s choice of 15.4-inches. In the meantime, I’m anxious to put that new battery to the test to see how much I can eke out of that old box.

So consider some of the so-called conventional wisdoms we hear about in the tech business. You know what I mean: The smartphone has reached the zenith of its development curve. Everyone who wants one has one, except for developing countries where people are just catching up. Besides, cheap gear from Chinese handset makers, with all or most of the features of the expensive gear from Apple and Samsung. will soon take over. It’s the PC playbook all over again. Companies are already racing to the bottom in trying to build gear that costs less and less. Profits be damned!

I suppose that seems logical enough. Existing gear is probably good enough for most people, and except for countries where people just can’t afford them, what magnificent features can manufacturers devise to entice people to upgrade in massive numbers? And if the existing gear keeps working well enough — and doesn’t need a new battery or some other costly repair — users are more inclined to hang onto them for a little longer.

So what’s Apple going to do in order to boost smartphone sales?

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The ingredients may have been there for Mac sales to continue to fall. Up till the fall of 2016, only one Mac had been refreshed, the MacBook with the usual processor upgrades. While OS X became macOS with the release of Sierra in late September, not a peep was heard from Apple about any further Mac upgrades.

The rumor mills had mentioned just one Mac getting the love, the MacBook Pro, which had received its last update in 2015. While one might take rumors with tiny grains of salt, it didn’t take long for them to coalesce on something resembling the final design. So it would be thinner and lighter, following Apple’s obsession with such things. The venerable function keypad would be replaced by a context-sensitive touchscreen with an OLED display. The final name was revealed at Apple’s October media event — the Touch Bar.

Now the Late 2016 MacBook Pro was one of the most controversial products ever released by Apple. The chatter — and the complaints — just didn’t stop. It was not professional enough, it was too expensive, it needed more RAM, and the Touch Bar? It’s just an silly extravagance.

Customers have also apparently had problems matching Apple’s claims of up to 10 hours battery life. Some received half that, but things got pretty dicey when Consumer Reports decided not to recommend the new models due to inconsistent battery life results.

I’ve weighed in on this before. CR uses a screwy battery test, which involves downloading 10 sites from their web server and loading them via a computer’s default browser with the cache turned off.

As regular readers know, this curious scheme required turning on the Develop menu in Safari, and it also triggered an inconsistent bug, constant reloading of icons, which produced erratic battery life. Rather than just reaching out to Apple for these anomalous results, particularly after previous Mac notebooks rated so well, they published the reviews with a not recommended rating.

Of course, this bug wasn’t discovered until Apple reached out to CR to figure out how their user-hostile tests were done. Earlier this week, both Apple and CR announced that the bug had been fixed in the upcoming macOS Sierra 10.12.3 release. After basically being embarrassed in public for their headline grabbing antics to ding Apple, CR retested the computers and finally gave them all top marks. Indeed, battery life ranged from 15.75 hours to 18.75 hours.

I’m serious.

As I said above, Apple claims up to 10 hours based on two sets of tests that I outlined in yesterday’s column. Long and short is that the new MacBook Pros actually garnered better battery ratings than just about any other notebook recently tested by CR, other than one model from HP and another from Vaio. Still, some Mac users are claiming inferior battery life, but since I assume a heavy portion of those users aren’t just reloading sites in the Develop menu, there may be another problem.

That said, perhaps the Sierra 10.12.3 update will address other battery issues too. It’s not that Apple is always clear about listing all problems in its release notes.

In the meantime, despite the fact that there was only one major Mac product release this year, it may well be that Apple has finally overcome falling sales. At a time when some question the company’s commitment to the platform, blue skies may lie ahead.

So according to the “preliminary” 4th quarter worldwide estimates from Gartner. Mac sales were up 2.4% year-over-year, to a total of 5,440,000, representing a total share of 7.5%. Number one was Lenovo, with a 21.7% share, and a total of 15,781,000 units sold, an increase of 1.6%. Overall, the market contracted some, continuing a long-term trend.

The other major survey came from IDC, which reported that Mac sales were down slightly, 0.9 percent., to 5,263,000. This isn’t bad in an eroding market, but you have to wonder the reasons for the differences.

In his appearance on The Tech Night Owl LIVE, industry analyst Stephen Baker, of the NPD Group, pronounced U.S. sales of both the Mac and iPhone as really good for the holiday quarter.

Of course, with estimates, you expect a margin for error. The real story will be told by Apple on January 31, when they are scheduled to announce earnings for the holiday quarter. But even if Mac sales are flat or only represent a slight increase, consistent with Gartner’s results, that would still be a pretty good figure. After all, the MacBook Pro only began to ship in quantity in November. It was the only all-new Mac for the entire year, and all the desktop models are long in the tooth. Although the iMac had an update in the fall of 2015, the Mac mini hasn’t been touched since 2014, and the Mac Pro is unchanged from the 2013 version.

Now Tim Cook is promising good things for Apple’s Mac desktop roadmap. Certainly high sales for the MacBook Pro would give Apple the incentive to continue to innovate. That said, if new models are in the offing this spring, they are soon to enter production, so Apple knows precisely what changes will come. The rumors should begin to come together in the next few weeks.

And decent Mac sales, in the face of the ongoing PC downturn, would go a long way towards inspiring confidence in the Mac’s future. Now how about a Magic Keyboard 2 with Touch Bar support? That’s the ticket.