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    Last Episode — August 24: Gene presents a regular, tech podcaster and commentator Kirk McElhearn , who comes aboard to talk about the impact of the outbreak of data hacks and ways to protect your stuff with strong passwords. He’ll also provide a common sense if unsuspected tip in setting one up. Also on the agenda, rumors about the next Mac mini from Apple. Will it, as rumored, be a visual clone of the Apple TV, and what are he limitations of such a form factor? As a sci-fi and fantasy fan, Kirk will also talk about some of his favorite stories and more. In is regular life, Kirk is a lapsed New Yorker living in Shakespeare’s home town, Stratford-upon-Avon, in the United Kingdom. He writes about things, records podcasts, makes photos, practices zen, and cohabits with cats. He’s an amateur photographer, and shoots with Leica cameras and iPhones. His writings include regular contributions to The Mac Security Blog , The Literature & Latte Blog, and TidBITS, and he has written for Popular Photography, MusicWeb International, as well as several other web sites and magazines. Kirk has also written more than two dozen books and documentation for dozens of popular Mac apps, as well as press releases, web content, reports, white papers, and more.

    For more episodes, click here to visit the show’s home page.

    The Apple Double-Standard Report

    July 26th, 2013

    Imagine, just imagine, that Apple had to take a one billion dollar write-down to cover repairs for the iPod or the iPhone. And, no, I’m not saying anything of that sort has ever occurred. But if it were to happen, you can bet it would be a headline story, carried on all the major, and not-so-major, media outlets around the world. If you think Apple’s stock price was somewhat low now, such a development would have vindicated all of those who claimed Apple was in deep trouble, and that they’d never regain their luster now that Steve Jobs was no longer piloting the ship.

    Yet in 2007, Microsoft took a write-down of that amount to deal with repairing the Xbox, many of which suffered from premature hardware failures. It was reported in the media for a short time, but mostly ignored thereafter. Things happen, and Microsoft was large enough to sustain such a loss without suffering seriously. We forget that, these days, Apple is larger.

    Now segue to 2013, where Microsoft takes another write-down, to the tune of $900 million, because the heavily promoted Surface tablet is an abject failure. The stock price, after falling for a few days, is increasing again. Clearly Wall Street wasn’t perturbed that much by Microsoft’s inability to make a dent in the tablet market. This is the future of PCs, after all, and the company that dominates the operating system business has been unable to demonstrate that the vision of PC anywhere has any basis.

    And, again, if Apple took a comparable write-down because they couldn’t sell, say, the MacBook Air, you can’t imagine how much bad publicity the’d get. Microsoft? Well, that’s just business. Sure, Microsoft didn’t meet analyst estimates for revenue during the last quarter, but it’s no big deal. Maybe they’ll do better the next quarter, or perhaps the quarter after that.

    With Apple, even a perceived misstep, one that has no measurable impact on the company’s sales, is some sort of Big Deal. Will Apple, for example, ever live down the early failure of Maps for iOS 6? Yes, it worked, mostly, but screen shots of every single error could be easily posted online. You could see the melted 3D rendering of the Hoover Dam, and how could Apple get away from that?

    But it was just software and a service. It’s not that an iPhone or iPad running iOS 6 couldn’t run alternatives, such as Google Maps. Besides, how many media pundits ever tell you about the beta warning that you get when you first launch the Google navigation app. Google’s legal team makes a huge effort to remind you that the company isn’t responsible if you get lost, yet that’s the standard-bearer of online navigation services. Curious indeed!

    It’s also fair to say that Maps for iOS has gotten better. 3D rendering has improved tremendously, and locations and directions are more accurate. It is not perfect yet by a long shot, and Apple is still acquiring technology to make it better. You may even soon be able to get public transit directions without having to call up a third-party app. Google? Well, the service sometimes makes mistakes. Are those mistakes as frequent as Apple’s? Well, even Consumer Reports magazine, which is most assuredly no friend to Apple, did a test of Maps for iOS 6 versus Google Maps early on and found both to deliver similar levels of accuracy, although Google had the more polished service. At least then.

    If Microsoft software is buggy, and it often is, that’s accepted. It’s par for the course, so just put up with it and get on with your lives, because that’s how things are. Windows is still ragged at the seams, although it has gotten a lot better over the years, at least until Windows 8 arrived.

    If Apple dared release a version of iOS or OS X that had near as many problems, watch out!

    It’s a sure thing that Apple is supposed to be perfect, and regularly come up with the game changers for the industry. When Microsoft tries to do something daringly different, and it’s fair to say Windows 8 was a huge risk, and fails, that’s not so bad. If iOS 7 fails to pass muster, it’s going to signal a huge problem for Apple, they say. Of course, the very same people complained over and over again that iOS had grown long in the tooth and was in deed of a major transformation.

    Apple delivered one, but they aren’t satisfied. I suppose Apple went to far, or didn’t deliver an interface closer to their concepts. But it’s not that iOS 7 is a finished product. There have been ongoing improvements, including using thicker fonts in some places for better readability. If iOS 7 is released with serious problems, they will have a right to complain. A few early release bugs? Well, let’s be realistic.

    But you have to think Apple’s management must be walking on egg shells. They know that they cannot afford to make even a minor mistake these days without everyone noticing. If any single product doesn’t deliver breakout sales, it’ll be regarded as the beginning of the end. If Samsung has a gadget that doesn’t realize its potential, and you have to say the media expected the Galaxy S4 smartphone to do better, that’s not such a serious problem. Worse, the supposedly responsible members of media don’t seem to realize there is a double standard, and that’s even more troubling.


    So Much for Falling iPhone Sales

    July 25th, 2013

    Ever since the iPhone 5 was released to record sales in September 2012, media and financial pundits have declared it a failure. When they estimated that Apple could sell 10 million units the first weekend, and Apple sold a record five million, that was a miss. Whose miss? Well, the silly estimates from some analysts who seem to get figures from places we don’t mention in public. In fact, Apple executives claimed they simply ran out of stock.

    Every so often, there would be more bad news, that Apple had cut back on orders for iPhone displays, or that demand had “softened.” Through all this period, iPhone sales continued to show year-over-year increases, yet it was still perceived as a failure. When Samsung sold ten million copies of the Galaxy S4 smartphone in the first four weeks, or at least shipped that many, that was declared  a huge success for the company and for any new product, forgetting Apple did better with the iPhone 5.

    But this is typical for the double standard that applies to Apple.

    Indeed, the iPhone pretty much saved Apple when it came to perceptions about the company’s performance for the June quarter. Compared to 26 million iPhones sold in the comparable quarter last year, Apple moved 31.2 million. That was sufficient to overcome the negative feelings of lower iPad and Mac sales. Apple’s stock price, which seemed to be either falling or  holding steady, rose rather sharply after the financials came out.

    But how could those analysts have been so wrong? After all, they do claim to be watching the supply chain and sometimes retail sales, so there was either a serious miscommunication somewhere along the line. Or they are simply making things up. I wouldn’t presume to guess which, although I think the latter may be closer to the truth, perhaps just to talk the stock down.

    However, it’s not as if the Apple naysayers are suddenly going to admit they were dead wrong all along, and that the claims that Apple was in trouble were never eally true. It was just smoke and mirrors, and if people lost lots of money when the stock price fell, well that’s too bad. People who bet against Apple evidently made out extremely well as a result.

    This isn’t to say that Apple did great during the last quarter. While it is to be expected Mac sales would be flat or declining somewhat because of overall industry trends, what about the iPad? Apple attributes most of the slower sales to inventory drawdowns, though it’s not at all clear why this happened. The best you get is that Apple wants to keep the supply chain lean and mean, which is a good thing. But did they make it so lean that people couldn’t buy iPads as easily as before? Or did demand really fall?

    To be fair, the last iPad refresh happened last October, and aging product lines don’t sell as well, although the iPhone’s ongoing success seemed to argue against that theory. I suppose that the iPad’s conquests in the business and educational market may result in a turnaround next quarter. Consumers will no doubt line up to buy them when the new models arrive, which one presumes will happen this fall.

    The ongoing success of the Mac is a larger question. Although Apple reported strong demand for the refreshed MacBook Air, that happened late in the quarter. Other Macs are still awaiting expected upgrades to Intel’s Haswell processor, and there’s the Mac Pro. But it’s not as if the Mac Pro, which uses an Intel Xeon processor, will necessarily sell in the hundreds of thousands when it arrives, even if there’s a lot of pent-up demand. A large portion of former Mac Pro users can do quite nicely with a top-of-the-line iMac at a far lower cost.

    As to the PC industry as a whole, sure it’s clear that the failure of Windows 8 has hurt sales. But PC upgrade cycles — both Mac and Windows — are much farther apart now. Consumers and businesses keep computers longer these days. You don’t have the huge performance boosts in new hardware year-over-year as you used to. Indeed, comparing this year’s model with last year’s, and an older chipset, often yields only a modest change that may only be apparent when you run some benchmarks.

    Intel’s Haswell chip may make a huge difference, at least when it comes to note-books, where every second of battery life is critical. So it’s possible Apple sales will grow somewhat when the MacBook Pros get their updates, and that may happen within the next few weeks. The arrival of OS X Mavericks, which, in large part, appears to run on the same Macs as Mountain Lion, may also spark an upgrade cycle. But it also promises to make your current Mac run faster, with better battery life. We’ll see when the final version arrives.

    Meantime, when it comes to the iPhone, did the comments from Tim Cook about the ongoing success of the lower cost models signal Apple’s plans to build a cheaper iPhone real soon now? Inquiring minds want to know.


    The Apple Earnings Report: Two Out of Three Ain’t Bad!

    July 24th, 2013

    The naysayers have been after Apple for months, and that, rather than flagging sales, is probably largely responsible for the company’s stock price woes. Ahead of this week’s announcement of June quarter financials, the stock price dropped yet again. Clearly Wall Street expected more bad news.

    At the end of the day, Apple met their guidance for the quarter, both revenue and gross margins, but at the same time sales growth was tepid compared to last year. So Apple reported revenues of $35.4 billion, a slight increase over 2012’s results of $35 billion. But profits fell from $8.8 billion, or $9.32 per diluted share, to $6.9 billion, or $7.47 per diluted share. I suppose you can’t criticize Apple for delivering accurate predictions. Indeed, the stock price soared in after-hours trading.

    Apple’s guidance for the current quarter includes revenue between $34 billion and $37 billion, and gross margins yet again between 36 percent and 37 percent. But that may be nothing to worry about, considering that Apple will apparently be in the process of introducing a number of new products late in the quarter, along with iOS 7 and OS X Mavericks. All right, the latter two are only promised for fall, which could mean they could slip to the December quarter.

    Actual sales were a mixed bag. A surprising 31.2 million iPhones were sold,  compared to 26 million in last year’s June quarter. That number, presaged by high iPhone sales at AT&T and Verizon, was several million above analyst estimates. But Apple missed on the iPad, with 14.6 million sold, compared to 17 million last year. Before you suggest the iPad is failing against Android competition — and the Microsoft Surface hasn’t gone anywhere — don’t forget that last year’s sales were boosted by the introduction of the third generation iPad. This year, it’s nine months since the fourth generation iPad and iPad mini were released, so you expect demand to cool.

    Apple also reported that iPad channel inventory was drawn down to 1.9 million units during the June quarter, which supposedly accounts for 80% of the decline in iPad shipments. As usual, Apple wasn’t asked why during the quarterly conference call with financial analysts. I suppose it could be the result of switching production over to new models.

    One piece of really good news was the announcement that 660,000 iPads were sold to the Los Angeles school system. This is just the latest in a series of reports about educational systems jumping on the iPad bandwagon.

    Moreover, Apple CEO Tim Cook did reveal that the iPad accounts for an amazing 84 percent of tablet-based Web traffic. Once again, Cook dug it into the other tablet makers, saying “If there are lots of other tablets selling, I don’t know what they’re being used for. Because that’s a pretty basic function, is web browsing.”

    As to Apple’s iPhone business, they reported that the iPhone 5 remains the most popular model so far, although there was no actual breakdown in sales proportions compared to the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4s, both of which are still seeing good sales long after they became yesterday’s news.

    But what about the Mac?

    Well, Mac sales declined 7 percent to 3.8 million. But, compared to the global PC market, this wasn’t so bad. Apple actually gained share, because the overall market contracted 11 percent. Although being pleased with what they called the strongest launch of a new MacBook Air, its June arrival meant that the improvement in quarterly sales was less than it might otherwise have been. When it comes to the current quarter, the predictions so far suggest we won’t see any new Macs until August at the earliest, and possibly later.

    In large part, Apple seems to be mostly treading water, since the promised major product introductions aren’t due until the fall. So if Apple doesn’t deliver on great sales for the latter part of the September quarter and the December quarter, the skeptics will feel somehow vindicated. Still, the iPhone is still showing unexpected strength long after the release of the most recent model.

    Meantime, if you want to probe the numbers in more detail, you’ll find them on Apple’s site.

    One thing is clear from Apple’s financials, and it’s that the company is not suffering near as much as Microsoft from the slowdown in PC sales. With a new version of OS X and some more new Macs expected this fall, including a totally redesigned Mac Pro, it’s hard to be bearish about the platform. If anything, sales might actually be better than expected.

    But there’s no denying the fact that the PC has passed its peak, and that it will be mostly downhill from here. Perhaps Mac sales will decline at a slower rate, or remain flat, but Apple is probably not going to see huge sales increases from here on. It’s also clear that the iPhone has plenty of life left, despite Samsung’s apparent success. Lest we forget, the Galaxy S4 smartphone hasn’t been the barn burner it was expected to be. Maybe that’s one reason why Samsung might be continuing to talk with Apple over patent infringement issues. If smartphone sales are troubled, Samsung could still earn a bundle from Apple from component sales, and that’s a great incentive to settle.


    So Apple Is Working On A — What?

    July 23rd, 2013

    There’s a published report this week indicating that Apple may want to go large with the iPhone and iPad. There’s talk of prototypes of the former with a 4.94-inch screen, close enough to five inches to be identical to the Samsung Galaxy S4. As reported in the Wall Street Journal, the iPad prototype has a screen that’s “slightly less than 13 inches diagonally.”

    Now if this report came from one of those Apple or Mac rumor sites, I suppose you might just ignore it. But the WSJ is evidently getting this information from the Asian supply chain, where such products have reportedly been built for testing. So it’s quite possible that the story is true, that Apple is indeed testing alternate form factors for their best-selling products.

    I suppose it’s also possible such products may appear some time in the future. When it comes to an iPhone with a larger screen, it’s not that Apple CEO Tim Cook has dismissed the possibility that there will ever be such an animal, although he has talked about problems with current technology when it comes to color quality, longevity, battery life, and so on and so forth. Usually when Apple speaks of problems of this sort, it indicates there has been a lot of thought into how best to deal with those problems.

    Take the iPad mini. Steve Jobs said, in a widely quoted remark, that you’d need to sandpaper your fingers to use one of the 7-inch tablets. Was he just blowing smoke, knowing a smaller iPad was under development? Yes, the iPad mini arrived after his passing, but that doesn’t mean he didn’t approve the early designs. True to tell, it may well be that most of the new Apple gear we’ll be seeing for another year or two was first green lit by Jobs.

    Regardless, notice how Apple VP Philip Schiller demonstrated how the standard aspect ratio of the 7.9-inch iPad mini gave you far more usable area than a 7-inch widescreen tablet. So Apple went to the larger form factor, and avoided widescreens, to give you more screen real estate, particularly in landscape mode. There’s no denying the mini’s success, and the reports that sales have actually exceeded that of the regular iPad.

    What this means is that, if Apple feels they can build a 5-inch iPhone that would meet their standards, you can bet one will appear. The same is true for a larger iPad, assuming there is much demand for such a beast.

    At the same time, however, these prototypes, if they exist, may never, ever see the light of day. It would be foolish to believe that every single product that enters the test labs and makes it to the prototype stage will actually be cleared for release. So Apple, as rumored, may have indeed ordered 55-inch and 65-inch flat panels for a proposed Apple connected TV. Indeed, I heard about a 42-inch version some time back, but you know what happened with that. Nothing of course. It’s very possible that Apple may not have reached the stage where they are ready to commit to production, or maybe it will be produced, but we don’t know when.

    However, when such rumors arise, even when they appear in mainstream publications with at least some measure of credibility, it would seem you have to take them seriously. After all, Apple is not going to release a new gadget just because the competition has been there already. The media has exhorted Apple to make various and sundry products for years without much impact. And when Apple released the iPhone and the iPad, the response was derision from many quarters, even before they had a chance to try them out. I can’t tell you how many times both were declared failures, but the same was true for the iPod.

    That there may be a larger iPhone in our future doesn’t mean that a less expensive model isn’t also on the horizon. Clearly the iPhone 4 and the iPhone 4s continue to sell extremely well, and that should serve as a huge incentive for Apple to want to continue to reach a growing market of people who want a great smartphone, but aren’t willing to pay for the state of the art without the carrier subsidy. Perhaps they don’t even care about having the most powerful components either, or have other priorities.

    But that assumes the iPhone Lite, or whatever it’ll be called, will have a 3.5-inch or 4-inch display. If Apple does have a larger iPhone under development, they would also have to make allowances in the iOS developer tools to make it easy to optimize apps for the new form factor, unless it has a display size in direct proportion to current models, with the same screen resolution. But that would also mean Apple would have to fudge slightly on the Retina display requirements, and that might limit the increase in screen size.

    However, I am anxious to see what Apple delivers come this fall, though I don’t expect to see most of the products said to be in prototype stage. More to the point, there probably won’t be an iPhone Phablet.