While the IFA trade show plays out in Berlin this week, you have to wonder just what great innovations will be on display from the PC and smartphone makers. In case you don’t follow the tech world too closely, IFA is the European equivalent of America’s Consumer Electronics Show, so you can expect loads of exhibitors presenting everything from new wireless handsets to home appliances.

With Windows 8 on the horizon, PC box makers touting their wares are hoping to entice customers to buy new computers during the holiday season. But when you look at the proposed offerings, you have to wonder where they get the idea that any of it is going to sell.

Coming off a huge defeat in their patent dispute with Apple, Samsung is now displaying something called the Series 7 Slate PC. Slate, by the way, is a PC label for products that are meant to, at least sometimes, serve the function of a tablet, but somehow haven’t earned that label. At first, the Series 7 Slate appears to be just another slim note-book, but it’s also a convertible, because the display can be separated from the keyboard. These awkward devices also come with an S-Pen, which is Samsung’s answer to a pressure-sensitive stylus.

Now as a practical matter, the Series 7 Slate is actually not so new. It first arrived last fall to tepid reviews, but with Windows 8 on the horizon, Samsung is giving the thing another chance. There are two basic model lineups, both with 11.6-inch displays. A $749 version ships with Intel’s entry-level Atom processor. An $1,199 version includes an Intel Core i5.

In fact, you get the impression that the Series 7 Slate is really just another variation on the Ultrabook theme. Ultrabook is Intel’s reference platform for slim and light note-books that are meant to compete with the MacBook Air. Only the MacBook Air has been a tremendous success ever since Apple revised the layout, and began to sell them for a starting price of $999. Even though some Ultrabooks, such as the Series 7 Slate, are cheaper than a MacBook Air in one form or another, they don’t sell very well.

At first, this seems strange. I mean, the basic Ultrabook form factor is slim, light, and decently attractive. OEMs are free to modify the basic trade dress, and add features that will separate them from the pack. That’s why some Ultrabooks, such as the ones from Samsung, are hybrid or convertible tablets, as if anyone is interested. It’s not as if removable screens have generated very much business over the years. But perhaps the PC makers are hoping to hit a home run because of one difference.

And that’s Windows 8.

When Windows 8 arrives this fall, PC makers are hoping their discarded product concepts will magically become relevant, hoping against hope that tens of millions of PC users will be ready to buy new computers on which Windows 8 is preloaded.

But as I’ve said before, Windows 8 won’t arrive with near the buzz of previous versions of Windows. Even Windows Vista, regarded as a major misstep for Microsoft, earned better reviews ahead of its release. With Windows 8, more and more tech reviewers are explaining in exquisite detail why they just can’t get into it. It’s not just the flat tiles generated by the interface formerly known as Metro. It’s the poor integration between the new interface and the old. Such Modern UI apps as Mail are stripped of core features that make the app even unacceptable in a child’s computer.

In fact, you get the impression that Windows 8 has a look and feel that would at home in a toy computer, and it may take a while for you to realize that it’s meant to serve as Microsoft’s operating system for the future, and that the main audience consists of adults.

Now forgetting the plusses and minuses of Windows 8, consider the plight of the PC makers who keep dusting off the same old failed concepts, believing that a few flashy TV ads will convince the unsuspecting public that they have built something new, different, innovative. Well, at least different.

Of course, this is the same tact taken by the wireless handset makers. Forgetting the clear similarities between a Samsung smartphone and an iPhone, it’s also true that the former delivers many models with different screen sizes and hardware layouts. Some even include a stylus, and are meant to serve as mini tablets rather than telephones. Certainly Samsung sells a lot of product, even though the profits are less than Apple, and the sales are distributed among countless models.

But there will come a time when the smartphone marketplace will be as saturated as the PC landscape. It will happen a lot faster, since so many smartphones are being sold each and every quarter. Soon, more and more customers will be upgraders rather than first-time buyers, and tech companies will be fighting over reduced profit margins to eke out as much market share as possible.

But if Apple continues to follow the same playback, they’ll get their share of profits, even if other companies sell more. And, unless things drastically change, model lineups will be limited, and OS features will be reasonably easy to master. And I will continue to wonder why other companies still fail to understand what the word simple really means.

Since the first public betas of Windows 8 appeared last year, I have really made a huge effort to find some comfort in the new interface. Right, it used to be Metro, but when that ended up being the name of a German supermarket chain, Microsoft opted for “Modern UI.” I suppose that could change yet again, although names don’t really count.

The product itself is perfectly awful, and I’m not alone in coming to that conclusion. Even tech pundits who’d normally favor Windows seem to be upset over a schizophrenic interface that splits you between 1980s-style square or rectangular tiles, or a simplified form of the traditional Windows desktop. What makes it doubly confusing is that there are even two versions of Microsoft’s Internet Explorer browser, one for each interface, though it appears they rely on the same bookmarks and cookies.

Now I realize that Windows 8 is better optimized for touch interfaces, but the vast, vast majority of users will be operating with a traditional keyboard and mouse, even though Microsoft would appear to want it otherwise. In my situation, I ran the pre-release versions under a virtual machine, first with Parallels Desktop 7, and, more recently, with the newly released VMWare Fusion 5.

I suppose some of you might complain that I should have run the Windows 8 betas on a “real” Windows PC to enjoy the best possible user experience. But the only downside would seem to be performance, and for that I had no complaints. The current versions of Parallels and Fusion are designed to be compatible with Windows 8.

But Parallels did have problems. The bundled apps, including Mail, were non-functional, and, after attempting to launch for a minute or so, would revert to the Modern UI Start screen. App launching was also tepid, although I would hope the next version of Parallels, due out in September, would offer better support.

With Fusion, I was actually able to use most Windows 8 features without trouble, although that doesn’t mean it was a pleasant experience. Take Mail, which is a pretty full-featured email client on the Mac. Under Windows 8, Microsoft has delivered a pathetic limited-function app that appears confined to Microsoft and Google email accounts. And don’t get me started about the dumbed-down interface that would be too basic for a grade school student.

If you want Windows 8 Mail to be your one and only email client, forget about iCloud, Yahoo!, your own domain or any other email service, such as GoDaddy, 1and1 Internet, Namecheap’s Open-Xchange, Polaris Mail, or Rackspace. There appears to be no way to add such accounts.

Within the Modern UI, you have to use barely accessible hotspots to change system settings, or even return from an app or the traditional Windows desktop. Now I’ll consider the possibility that mouse and trackpad handling is not a fault of Windows 8, but due to the fact that the Parallels and VMWare drivers haven’t been updated to provide a smooth experience.

Or maybe Microsoft still had a lot of work to do in making Windows 8 function predictably. I’ll also grant that the road from beta to RTM (Release To Manufacturing) gave Microsoft sufficient opportunity to repair some of the worst problems ahead of the final release.

Microsoft’s biggest task, however, is to convince customers that this mess is the future of personal computing. In Microsoft’s parlance, we’re in the world of PC+, rather than PostPC, which is the Apple version. In theory, Windows 8 will work pretty much the same on an ARM-based tablet as on a traditional PC. But the touch obsession, assuming it works, is going to freak the traditional Windows home and business user.

I cannot even imagine the enterprise adopting this total mess. Retraining employees reduces productivity and costs money, and it’s not as if Windows 8 is offering any demonstrable improvement over the traditional Windows look and feel. I mean, hundreds of millions of customers do productive work on a Windows PC every single day. Certainly OS revisions that improved productivity would be welcome by any company. But not change for the sake of change.

Understand that I have used Windows for years. It’s not my OS of choice, but I have written books about Windows products, and even used Word for Windows to handle those chores. When there were no Mac versions of an app I needed to run, obviously I had to resort to Windows.

Over the years, I have tested Windows PCs and written reviews about them for major tech publications. These days, my excursions into the Windows world are confined to a virtual machine. Both Parallels and VMWare are good enough not to require a standard Windows PC, except for heavy gaming. Even then, Apple’s Boot Camp can do wonders, although it’s easier for me just to run the virtualization app. Performance is that good, and I have options to integrate Windows apps with Mac apps to make the cross-platform experience reasonably pleasant.

Yes, I will install the release version of Windows 8. Ever optimistic, I will hope that Microsoft has fixed some of the worst ills. But even Windows fans are expecting a train wreck, and Microsoft may have to come out with a Plan B far sooner than they expect.

So Apple got a favorable jury verdict in a California Federal court. Our favorite fruit company was awarded over a billion dollars, although it may be years, if ever, before the check is in the mail. Samsung’s stock price is down, while Apple’s has soared. Is it time to take out the champagne glasses yet and celebrate?

I suppose it’s only logical for Apple fans to feel vindicated. What Steve Jobs and Tim Cook said was clearly true. Other companies were busy stealing Apple’s inventions and producing knock-off smartphones, tablets, and so on and so forth. It had to be true, because the jury said so.

But court actions of this scope aren’t so cut and dry. Yes, Apple won the jury verdict, but the case is far from over. On September 20, Federal Judge Lucy Koh will consider motions by Apple to ban eight Samsung smartphones that allegedly infringe Apple patents. At the same time, Judge Koh could decide whether to invalidate all or part of the jury’s verdict, and, if upheld, whether Apple is entitled to triple damages because the infringement was willful.

Certainly Samsung’s lawyers will be busy filing their own motions, and that’s before the appeals process begins. If Samsung’s appeal fails, they could move to a higher court, maybe even the U.S. Supreme Court, with no guarantee that anything is going to change. Months can easily become years, although the Samsung products named in the case will be long out of production. In the meantime, it’s certain that Samsung will be busy redesigning their current products in efforts to workaround Apple’s intellectual property. In fact, that appears to have already happened in some cases.

In addition, this single action, although sending shock waves through the tech industry, won’t necessarily slow the number of legal filings around the world. Armed with this singular victory, Apple is apt to be tempted to go after other companies, maybe even Google, who appears to be blaming Samsung for the infringements, saying it was due to their custom additions to Android.

As you readers know, Samsung is perhaps the world’s largest seller of components to Apple, but that division is run separate from the mobile division. However, it’s also possible that Samsung’s executives will be anxious to put this embarrassing episode behind them and attempt to make some cross-licensing deals with Apple. In the end, Apple could receive hundreds of millions of dollars from Android licensees, most of whom are already paying Microsoft to license their intellectual property.

You’d think this legal by-play would encourage these smartphone makers to look elsewhere for an OS. It’s possible some might want to try the WebOS, from the former Palm division of HP, which has been open sourced. Apple never went after Palm, although it would take a lot of expensive development to make WebOS up to date and more competitive with the iOS and Android.

Another possible beneficiary is Microsoft. Apple already has cross-licensing agreements in place with Microsoft, and at least some handset makers who build Android gear have also licensed Windows Phone. Smartphone makers would have an opportunity to use a platform that isn’t involved in these legal skirmishes, and some analysts are already suggesting that Windows Phone might indeed suddenly become relevant rather than an afterthought.

Unfortunately for Microsoft, people who buy smartphones have largely ignored Windows Phone. A big ad campaign by AT&T to push the Nokia Lumia 900 didn’t do so well. Sales remained tepid, and Nokia continues to lose bundles of money on their smartphone division. As the first Windows Phone vendor among equals, you’d think Nokia would want to consider other alternatives.

It’s also true that such smartphone makers as HTC have tried Windows Phone and failed. That companies are anxious to ditch Android isn’t going to make the public suddenly adore Windows Phone. That doesn’t seem to be in the cards.

Perhaps there’s room for Research In Motion, assuming the beleaguered company is interested in licensing the BlackBerry OS. But that might be the only hope for RIM.  But smartphones powered by BlackBerry won’t suddenly become best sellers because smartphone makers are swearing off Android. At worst, Apple’s legal victory may slow the development process of new gear, as Google and their licensees work harder to make sure that no OS, app features, or trade dress match Apple too closely.

I suppose it’s even possible one of the smartphone makers will consider building their own OS, although Samsung’s efforts in that direction haven’t spread beyond basic feature phones. The same is true for Nokia, who set aside Symbian and embraced Windows Phone, at least for smartphones.

Now some of the critics would rather suggest that the customer is being hurt, because there will be fewer products on the market. I’d rather think that we might see fewer models, but they’d be more innovative, maybe even offer features that take smartphones in a new direction, as handset makers struggle, for once, not to imitate Apple. How can anyone say that would be a bad thing?

Meantime, the legal skirmishes will continue, and some suggest the situation may only get worse before it gets better.

It’s one for the books, to be sure, but Apple was awarded a huge victory Friday in their ongoing worldwide legal skirmishes against Samsung for patent infringement. In a San Jose courtroom, a nine-member jury found that Samsung was, for the most part, guilty as charged, and they awarded Apple over one billion dollars in penalties. In turn, Apple owes nothing to Samsung, whose counterclaims failed to connect with the jury.

But the story doesn’t end there, because Samsung has already made it clear they plan to appeal, and that is to be expected. It is also possible for U.S. District Judge Lucy Koh to reject all or part of the jury’s verdict, and even to triple the damages on the theory that Samsung’s infringement was willful. In turn, Apple will demand that Samsung be enjoined from selling the infringing products in the U.S. To be sure, this case may take years to resolve, when you consider appeals. By that time, the alleged infringing products will be history.

Both Apple and Samsung released statements that were in themselves predictable. Apple CEO Tim Cook said it all in the first sentence of an employee memo, that “Today was an important day for Apple and for innovators everywhere.” Samsung’s spin on the situation is that “Today’s verdict should not be viewed as a win for Apple, but as a loss for the American consumer.

Continue Reading…