Predictably, Apple has announced a media event for 10:00 AM Pacific on September 12 at the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts in San Francisco. Along with the telltale words “It’s almost here,” there’s a faded number five. I suppose there’s little left to say, but Apple will manage to stretch it out over an hour or so.

Sure, it’s clear the next iPhone will be called iPhone 5, a fact predicted for months. However, last year’s iPhone refresh was also supposed to be an iPhone 5 before it became a 4S, to the disappointment of some tech pundits. Customers didn’t seem to mind, however, as the iPhone 4s featured Siri, the personal digital assistant that has become a cultural phenomenon. Or at least that’s how it seems with famous people doing TV ads extolling Siri’s verbal dexterity. It works rather well, at least when Siri actually understands what you’re saying.

Certainly the features of the iPhone 5 seem obvious. The model name, incrementing by one number, essentially means that the case will be redesigned. With so many other smartphones growing in display size, the mockups of the iPhone 5 suggest four inches. This would be a vertical increase, but not a horizontal one, which means that it will be no more difficult to hold compared to the current models. You can’t say that about some of those other handsets, particularly the models with screens that exceed five inches. How current iPhone apps will be handled is anyone’s guess. Unless the iOS developer tools compensate, existing apps will have black borders representing the extra screen size, until they are updated of course.

Assuming a larger screen, you can also assume that there will be support for LTE wireless networking, since the iPad already went in that direction earlier this year. No self-respecting smartphone can avoid LTE nowadays, and Apple is somewhat late to the game. Part of this may be due to the fact that the early generation LTE chips were power hungry, and Apple doesn’t want to offer an iPhone with less battery life than existing models. So the internals may allow room for a larger battery.

The rest of the specs of the iPhone 5 might be expected, but become more speculative. Ever in search of fancy new technology, Apple may use an in-cell display, which combines the touch screen with the LCD. Turning two components into one means it’ll be thinner and perhaps lighter, and certainly Apple could use some of the extra space for a bigger battery. That might also explain the possible use of a smaller dock connector. The mockups are showing a 9-pin arrangement, compared to the current 30 pins. But I would hope Apple will include an adapter to allow you to use existing accessories, although the companies who build such gear will no doubt be rushing to update their designs.

From here, Apple might migrate to an A6 processor, in a move to boost performance way beyond current levels, and there have been reports about redesigned earphones. There will, of course, be iOS 6, but nothing you’ve read so far should come as a surprise, and I would be just as surprised if any of these predictions, widely reported by the media, turned out to be wrong. With all the advance publicity, you almost think customers might be disappointed, though I expect that Apple will report record sales after the first weekend.

You’ll probably be able to order an iPhone 5 within days, and it’ll go on sale the following weekend, probably September 21. iOS 6 upgrades will likely be available for download a few days earlier to keep from clogging Apple’s servers.

But will Apple announce the long missed “one more thing” at the end of next week’s event?

Some suggest that the long-rumored iPad mini will be launched. It’s reportedly designed to compete with the Amazon Kindle Fire and the Google Nexus 7. Or maybe not. According to Jim Dalrymple of The Loop, who tends to be on the mark about such things, Apple may hold off the iPad mini introduction until early October, still in time to get huge sales during the holiday season. There are also reports of a new iMac and possibly a 13-inch MacBook with Retina display, but Mac refreshes tend to get press releases rather than special events nowadays.

There are reports, however, that Apple might use next week’s event to introduce a new iPod lineup. Perhaps there will be an upgraded iPod touch with a design that closely matches the iPhone 5. That the iPod touch hasn’t been upgraded in a while makes it seem fairly certain something will arrive soon, particularly since it remains the highest selling model in that lineup.

In passing, I wonder if Apple plans to keep the 160GB iPod classic available. This product hasn’t been upgraded in three years, and you have to think that, with iTunes Match serving as an alternate storage method for large music libraries, Apple might just discontinue the last traditional iPod.

All in all, I expect to see more record sales reports from Apple going forward, but I also expect I’ll be just slightly disappointed with next week’s media event, unless, of course, Apple pulls out a surprise that has not even been suggested in the endless media speculation.

Would you believe that Windows 7 has finally overtaken an OS, Windows XP, which is 11 years old? The mind boggles that XP has held on so long, and the Windows 7 advantage is hardly significant. The survey comes from Net Applications, which bases the Desktop Top Operating System Share Trend strictly on Web traffic.

But how are computers in offices that do not actually access anything but internal corporate networks considered, since they never go online?

In any case, assuming the figures are fairly accurate, we see Windows XP with a 42.5% share, and Windows 7 with a 42.76% share as of August of this year. The failed Windows Vista has but a 6% share. Apple has a 7.11% share, even though Macs have been doing much better lately. But older computers will continue to afford Windows a much larger share. As for Windows 8, which has been available in beta form for a while, its share was registered at 0.23%.

Yet another Web tracking company, StatCounter, declared Windows 7 the victor last year, and puts Microsoft’s current OS at a 50% share. So maybe these surveys only give, at best, an approximation of an overall trend.

Regardless, none of these tracking services will record any meaningful results for Windows 8 until November or December at the earliest, which means it will take a while to see just how well it’s doing. But again, that assumes the stats are close to the mark, which is not at all certain when results vary by over 7% between two widely reported surveys.

But the success of Windows XP is striking, and Microsoft’s failure to move another OS into dominance for so long clearly indicates that customers still remain extremely reluctant to upgrade.

I wouldn’t presume to guess how well Windows 8 will fare on the long haul. Certainly it represents a huge gamble on Microsoft’s part. Consider the vast changes that will require extensive customer retraining. Then compare the situation when Mac OS 9 was replaced by Mac OS X. Sure, the underlying OS was totally revamped, and software designed for one wouldn’t work on the other. But Apple did provide a Classic emulator to smooth the transition. Regardless, the techniques you learned to master the Classic Mac OS would still help you quickly get up to speed with Mac OS X. The Dock was front and center but quickly discovered, as was using System Preferences instead of the Control Panel.

I wrote books about the Classic and Unix-based Mac OS. Although all the screen shots had to be replaced, many of the underlying instructions could be held over from one to the other. A business that bought a new Mac wouldn’t suffer from high retraining costs, as opposed to a business buying a PC loaded with Windows 8.

Microsoft obviously depends on the enterprise for a large share of the company’s business. I really wonder why the drastic changes in Windows 8 were never considered as being a detriment for easy business adoption. That doesn’t make much sense.

Of course, Microsoft may only be hoping that businesses will just continue to migrate to Windows 7, and rely on Windows 8 as something to boast in ads for consumers. Microsoft will seem to be contemporary, and Apple, having made less drastic changes to OS X, will seem backwards rather than innovative.

Maybe it won’t matter that it’s easier to master and use a Mac, and yes I accept the fact that there are some usability concerns. But I also wonder how quickly Windows OEMs will rush to offer cheap or no-cost downgrades to Windows 7 for customers who complain.

It’s not that Windows 8 is arriving with anything near the buzz of Windows 7, let alone Windows Vista. That has to create a potential climate of fear within Microsoft. What if Windows 8 bombs? Is there a way to rush a new version of Windows that ditches the Modern UI — formerly known as Metro — and restores a Windows desktop that has been successful for years?

In response, Microsoft is likely to double down and throw more marketing dollars into pushing Windows 8. Windows 9 may fix some of the worst ills, but Microsoft may find that success isn’t guaranteed by marketing dollars alone. Consider the recent six billion dollar write-down because the purchase of an online marketing company several years ago failed to deliver the goods.

Today, Microsoft is still investing heavily in the Bing search engine, whose market share growth has come mostly at the expense of Yahoo! which is also powered by Bing. Google’s share remains consistent. But Microsoft is not ready to declare defeat. It worked with the Xbox, after all.

Where Microsoft might gain share is in the smartphone market. If Apple’s courtroom victory encourages handset makers to dump Android and switch to Windows Phone, maybe the stillborn mobile OS will have a new lease on life. But marketing dollars didn’t make a success out of the Nokia Lumia 900, so why expect that things will suddenly change even if more Windows Phone hardware appears on the market?

The possible failure of Windows 8, and Samsung’s loss in court may help Apple move more OS X and iOS hardware, at least in the short term. And surveys also show that most people who move to Apple aren’t inclined to switch to another platform. Is Microsoft listening? And who believes surveys anyway?

According to published reports, Apple CEO Tim Cook and Google CEO Larry Page are talking. But it’s probably not about exchanging family recipes or the state of the election campaign in the U.S. Most likely, Cook and Page are trying to come to some sort of agreement to stop the patent lawsuit mess that is wasting hundreds of millions of dollars in legal fees for tech companies around the world.

Yes, Apple beat Samsung in a California courtroom. But, aside from the possible loss of face, it’s not going to put Samsung out of business, or even hurt the company’s revenue potential all that much. Sure, I suppose Samsung phones may lose popularity for a short time, and it has been reported that lots of people are selling them to dealers who buy up smartphones and other gear.

No doubt the arrival of the iPhone 5 — or whatever Apple chooses to call it — will boost the company’s share of the smartphone market. There won’t be so much talk about the next Galaxy handset for a while. But Samsung didn’t become a major manufacturing conglomerate by accepting failure.

Continue Reading…

Assuming the rumors and speculation are partly or mostly accurate, I suppose you would agree that tech savvy people have a pretty good idea about the next iPhone. It is supposed to be called the iPhone 5. It will be introduced at a so-far unannounced media event on September 12, and will go on sale the following week.

The basic specs have been depicted in supposedly leaked prototype photos, showing mostly the internal workings, and some external illustrations of the actual form factor. If they are accurate — and it’s never a certainly — the iPhone 5 will sport a display of roughly four inches, with the increase vertical, rather than horizontal. This will allow you to still use it with one hand. Some of those other smartphones aren’t so well designed, particularly handsets from Samsung and other companies that have displays that exceed five inches.

The rest of the specs include support for LTE networking, and possibly a smaller and reversible dock connector. Since lots of accessories would become incompatible with the new iPhone as a result of that change, Apple might supply a converter plug. At least I hope so.

There’s even a blurry photo said to depict an A6 processor, which indicates better performance as well. Apple’s alleged move to in-cell display technology means that the touch screen and display will become one, making for a thinner part, maybe even more power efficient. Certainly that, and a larger battery, would help Apple cope with the higher requirements of LTE hardware, and still keep the battery life at roughly the current level.

Understand that everything I’ve said so far consists of rumors, although some of the speculation appears to be informed. Certainly when The Loop’s Jim Dalrymple gets involved and proclaims something true — such as the date of Apple’s expected media event — you are probably safe in assuming that he’s right. He’s also said, by the way, that Apple will introduce a tinier iPad in October.

All well and good. If you have an Android phone, or an older iPhone, you may be wondering whether it’s time to get in line for the fall upgrade. Now I realize some of you have recent contracts with your wireless provider, so there could be a hefty fee to break your contract. On the positive side of the ledger, if you sell your iPhone, you could get a pretty decent amount of money that may be sufficient to cover your loss. I’ve seen offers for an iPhone 4s, last year’s model, in the range of $300 or so, which may leave you with a little extra cash for your iPhone 5.

If you have an Android phone, you may have a problem, particularly if it carries the Samsung label. According to published reports, more and more customers are dumping their Android phones, which has the effect of reducing the sales price. That could be a short-term problem, though.

Of course, if your contract with a wireless carrier is up or will be shortly, or you can afford to buy an unsubsidized iPhone, no problem. You just have to get in line, as the demand will no doubt be off the charts. In fact, I rather suspect Apple is working overtime to get the iPhone 5 on the market before the September quarter ends to boost sales results. No doubt there are folks on the sidelines not buying any other iPhone in anticipation of a newer, better model.

Apple suffered from the waiting on the sidelines syndrome last year, and the run up to the iPhone 5 may make the phenomenon worse. Yes, I realize that some industry analysts don’t believe that large numbers of customers are holding back, but I think Apple’s September 2011 quarter demonstrates the opposite is true.

For me, having an iPhone 4s purchased from an AT&T store some weeks after last year’s introduction, I’d have to pay a hefty penalty to get the iPhone 4. On the other hand, I have options. My wife’s handset, a vintage Motorola RAZR, is long past its contract. She has been asking about a replacement, and I suppose I could move the iPhone 4s to her number, which would transfer the contract as well, and sign up for an iPhone 5 without paying the penalty.

The real issue is whether the upgrade will be that compelling beyond the expected larger screen. I don’t worry so much about faster download speeds, since most of my downloading is done on a Wi-Fi connection. I suppose an A6 will deliver a better user experience, particularly for gaming, if I played games of course. But I didn’t notice that much of an improvement when moving from an iPhone 4 to an iPhone 4s.

This is a dilemma lots of you are going to confront over the next few weeks. I expect that next iPhone to break sales records, in part, on the basis of anticipation and deferred sales. And the Apple/Samsung verdict will likely move more customers into the Apple camp.

For me, though, the most important upgrade may be the next iMac. Mine is nearly three years old, an eternity in the personal computing world. Maybe I should pass the iPhone 5 by and apply the savings towards a down payment on a new Mac instead.