The media’s theme this week is that Microsoft’s forthcoming Windows 8 will be a game changer, as they attempt to deliver basically the same user experience on mobile and desktop computers. Well, more or less. All this joy will be inflicted on Windows users some time in 2012.

Now to be fair to Microsoft, the versions demonstrated to the media this week are works in progress, not fully formed and hence things might change, hopefully for the better. So any observations I make based on what I’ve studied and seen might be regarded as preliminary and perhaps wrong. Understand that I did not physically touch the OS; I’m relying media reports and screen captures that appear to be consistent from publication to publication.

So when you boot into Windows 8, you’ll be facing a new Start screen fashioned after Windows Phone 7. The interface, dubbed Metro (and don’t get me started about what that name signifies) consists of flat tiles, or rectangular widgets that have no dimensionality or shading whatever. From a designer’s standpoint, I suppose the retro look might be akin to something out of the 1980s. Unfortunately, some of the worst excesses of poor Web design are in evidence, such as putting white lettering against colored backgrounds. This forces you to actually strain to read the labels, a poor decision that works against discoverability. To me it’s butt ugly, but I assume Microsoft somehow hopes to make it easy for users to figure out the way things work in Windows 8 without having to succumb to severe retraining, which would hurt adoption by business. Or perhaps they’ll turn off that miserable overlay and revert to the traditional Windows Start menu and desktop.

Another new feature of Windows 8 is the alleged rapid boot time, said to be less than eight seconds on the tablets handed out to the media. But those tablets aren’t running the traditional ARM chips found on the iPad and its direct competitors, even though Windows 8 is supposed to operate on that chip too. Instead, the hardware consists of PC note-books without keyboards, running standard Intel chips and solid state drives. No wonder they seem to run relatively fast. At the same time some journalists are reporting that the systems run hot, with the fans operating at full tilt. Clearly Microsoft has lots of work to do.

In scaling down Windows 8 to run on an ARM chip, it appears that you won’t be able to use your regular Windows apps, even in emulation, though I might be wrong about that. Instead, there will be a new family of Web-based apps that will work on both the ARM and x86 processors. This appears to be similar to what Apple tried to do early on with the iOS in 2007, when there was no iPhone SDK or App Store. Developers weren’t interested, although Microsoft’s sheer size and market share might compel a reasonable number of developers to get with the program. There will also be an app store that will somehow differentiate apps that run on the various Windows 8 platforms, or list them as compatible with all.

But that doesn’t mean you’ll be able to run the standard Office and other productivity apps on ARM-based tablets. Indeed, it’s not at all certain how well Windows 8 will run in such restricted environments, since we’re talking about computers with processor power that compares closely to what you might have achieved seven or eight years ago on a regular PC. That the iOS and Android OS seem so fast is that they are reduced-function systems that are specially optimized for such mobile hardware. It remains a huge question how well Microsoft’s melding of the two will succeed in the real world when push comes to shove.

Again, these are just preliminary thoughts.

Yes, it’s true that Apple has grafted some elements of the iOS in Mac OS X Lion. However, those additions are relatively minor in the scheme of things, and don’t hit you right in the face. You don’t need to run Launchpad, and the reverse scrolling and the ability to run on-demand scrollbars can be repaired by clicking a couple of checkboxes in the appropriate System Preferences pane. Lion, therefore, isn’t in your face.

When it comes to Lion’s enhanced gestures, again you don’t need to use them, ever. The usual commands are available from the menu bar, keyboard and mouse, just as they’ve always been. Apple has also opted not to disappear the menu bar in place of an enhanced toolbar, as Microsoft is doing with their infamous ribbon.

I understand Microsoft might chafe at having Windows constantly being compared to Mac OS X in look and feel. The famous crack, “Redmond, start your copying machines” might have cut deeply. At the same time, change for change’s sake isn’t a good thing either. If the user interface must be modified, I hope Microsoft is making some effort to determine whether customers will be empowered rather than confused by the wealth of changes. If the latter, why bother? Just to look different?

It’s also true that Microsoft hasn’t done so well in the mobile space. Although it has gotten some favorable reviews, Windows Phone 7 simply hasn’t caught on. So, in effect, Microsoft is taking a failed idea and grafting it onto its most profitable product.

Sure, it’s quite possible Windows 8 might prove to be reasonably successful when it comes out next year. But right now, it comes across as an incoherent mess.

As you know, the stock market barely budged when Steve Jobs revealed what some regarded as inevitable, that he was stepping down as Apple’s CEO. Few were surprised that COO Tim Cook, who had served as acting CEO during Jobs’ extended sick leaves, will retain the top job. That, plus a million shares of stock, was designed to keep Cook plying his trade at Apple for the foreseeable future.

After Jobs stepped down as CEO, most members of the media treated the announcement as the beginning of a new era at Apple. Without Jobs overseeing and micromanaging product vision and development, how would Apple fare against heated competition, particularly in the mobile marketplace? Indeed, many of the stories about Jobs’ tenure at Apple seem little different from eulogies, as if he is no longer around.

The truth is rather different. As most of you know, Jobs assumed the post of Chairman of the Board, and remains an Apple employee. The informed speculation has it that Jobs is simply not well enough to sustain the long workdays that are required of the CEO, which often involve tasks that are far beyond the essentials of working with products, marketing, and devising company strategy. Indeed, it may well be that Jobs will be able to better concentrate on the things he does best, leaving it to others to handle the rest.

Certainly, I do not pretend to know the seriousness of his illness. Some speculate his ability to work varies from day to day, and that it may only be a matter of time before he has to quit. It may well be that he is simply slowing down at the advice of his doctors to help improve his long-term prospects for survival. I prefer not to engage in morbid speculation, however, since I just don’t know.

What is forgotten is that Apple is not a one-man band, never was. The second coming of Steve Jobs became a successful reign because of teamwork. Apple has a huge bench of brilliant people who develop and test products, devise marketing strategy, build and distribute those goods. To believe that Jobs somehow did all those things is downright absurd. At last count, Apple has over 50,000 full-time and part-time workers around the world, plus all the people who assemble Apple’s iconic gadgets at a number of contract factories. Steve Jobs may be great at imagining what people need — as opposed to what they say they want — but it takes a large crew of talented people to make it all happen.

In recent years, Apple media events have featured some of the people who manage Apple’s software and marketing divisions. Since returning to Apple in late 1996, Jobs has reportedly instilled into his crew the corporate DNA, understanding that he can’t be there forever, and that the company must carry on.

Unfortunately, far too many people look at Apple’s early history, when the company flailed and nearly went under in the years after Jobs was ousted in a corporate coup. In those days, the mercurial Jobs clearly didn’t have the business acumen to plan for his departure, and prepare for successors. That was then, and this is now. Today, Apple is the number one tech company on the planet, with sophisticated management that is quite capable of continuing to follow through on Jobs’ vision, even when he is no longer around even to serve as Chairman.

This doesn’t mean Apple’s future is assured, anymore than it would be had Jobs been healthy, hearty, and prepared to serve as CEO for life. Nothing stops another high-power tech company from building better gear, and taking the industry in new directions that Apple’s powerful management never envisioned. Where once high-flying companies as HP flail because of changes in the market, and the inability to move fast enough, Apple cannot possibly be assured of growing ahead of the industry forever.

Indeed, one key reason why the iPhone and iPad are so successful these days is simply because the competition lacks vision. The Android OS, for better or worse, doesn’t advance the state of the art of mobile operating systems. It’s just an alternative to the iOS that may be better in some ways, inferior in others. When it comes to the hardware, handset makers clearly have no clue what customers want. All they can do is sell specs. In the tablet market, the iPad is destined to be king of the hill for quite a while. Other tablets come across as “almost iPads,” struggling to imitate rather than innovate.

Sure, Microsoft hopes things will change with Windows 8, which will support both the traditional AMD/Intel chips, and ARM. But building a tablet in the image of a PC has already been done without much success. Whether Microsoft truly gets it this time is a huge question mark. It’s not as if Windows Phone 7, despite decent reviews, has set the smartphone market afire.

For now, Steve Jobs and Apple will remain tightly intertwined. As the company moves on, following in his footsteps, time will tell how thick his DNA really is, and whether the rest of the industry has the courage to prove they can build superior products.

So there are two stories being written about the next iPhone, which is expected to arrive some time in October. One has it that it will be very much the same as the present-day iPhone 4, except for adding the A5 processor, now used on the iPad 2, and perhaps an eight megapixel camera sensor, the better to capture photos.

Beyond that, the antenna may be redesigned to make it more immune to so-called death grips if you hold them the wrong way. It may even be a “world phone,” meaning it will operate on both the GSM and CDMA networks, so Apple can build one product and reduce production costs. Any other internal changes would be minor.

All told, this iPhone 4s or 4GS will carry the same 16GB and 32GB solid state memory options as the current models, and will sell for essentially the same prices. But there may be a lesser version, perhaps an 8GB variant of today’s iPhone 4, designed to appeal to customers who want something with a relatively cheap up-front price of $49 or less with the usual two-year contract.

The second round of speculation talks of a distinctly different iPhone 5, sporting a new look, perhaps returning to curves and perhaps an aluminum backing to match the style of the iPad 2, the MacBook Air and the MacBook Pro. It would seem sensible to sport a family resemblance among all Apple products, since the iPhone 4 may strike some as an anomaly with its glass front and rear casings. The screen size may nor may not be somewhat larger, depending on which rumor site you visit, although this is one possibility that has gotten traction from several. The actual screen resolution would be the same, but a slightly larger display would still fit into the “Retina” category based on Apple’s current calculations. Otherwise, hardware attributes would be the same as  described for an iPhone 4s/GS, or whatever it might be called.

Maybe Apple could somehow increase maximum storage to 64GB, same as the iPod touch, but it’s questionable whether prices for flash memory have yet declined to the point where Apple can buy the largest capacities and not increase the selling price.

At the same time, it doesn’t seem that Apple is yet drawing down production and availability of the iPhone 4, and unofficial estimates say that they are still selling at a pretty good clip. This appears to mean that few customers are waiting on the sidelines for the update. But a lot of that represents what buyers need now, and what the competition offers.

Sure, Android OS gear is regularly updated. Hardly a week passes where you don’t hear about something new from HTC, LG, Samsung or another smartphone maker, with faster internal workings, spiffier screens, and other new features. It’s not that Android has necessarily gotten any better, nor has the growing number of Android apps demonstrated they can compete with Apple’s app repository except for raw numbers.

Just recently, I read a report that stated the iPhone 4 remained the most popular smartphone model in the U.S. in the last quarter, followed by the iPhone 3GS, circa 2009, which is only available for AT&T customers. All the remaining smartphones, some for less money, were also-rans. Now I don’t know how the numbers will stack up this quarter, although some stories indicate the iPhone continues to do extremely well.

In the scheme of things, of course, there are far more Android OS smartphones out there. There are loads and loads of models, barely distinguishable, from several manufacturers. Some can be bought for no money up front, and that might be tempting. On the surface, customers may believe them to be visibly equivalent to the iPhone, and that forms the basis of Apple’s ongoing lawsuits for patent infringement against Samsung, HTC, and others. Meanwhile, with Microsoft demonstrating Windows 8 this week for mobile and desktop platforms, they’ve become almost a non-entity in the smartphone market.

If iPhone sales remain high, the slowdown ahead of the launch of the next model may be short-lived. Again, it appears that Apple’s expected media event will happen in early to mid-October. But there’s one more question. As we approach the middle of September, nothing has been said, at least as of this writing, about the introduction of the next generation iPods. You’d expect them to arrive by now.

On the other hand, the iPod has assumed a lower priority in Apple’s product portfolio, as sales continue to decline. Maybe they will simply be introduced with a press release, as is generally done with new Macs, with Apple reserving special media attention to focus on the arrival of the next iPhone, whatever it’s called, iOS 5, and, of course, iCloud. But I suppose it’s possible the iPod will get a brief level of attention.

But the current sales rate of the iPhone 4 (and iPhone 3GS) clearly indicates that Apple already has a smartphone that’s good enough to trounce competing models in unit sales. Despite all the product updates in Android OS land, that truth hasn’t changed.

While Apple doles out information about future operating systems in carefully crafted media events (including the annual WWDC) and press releases, news about the next great OS from Microsoft seems to leak like a sieve. So even though you’ll actually learn how Windows 8 will run on tablets at Microsoft’s Build conference on September 13th, there’s already a pretty decent amount of information available as to what it’s all about.

So, for example, Windows 8 will work not just on traditional PCs, using x86 chips from Intel, but on the ARM-based processors that power tablets. Basically, it’s all going to be the same operating system, running the same software when it arrives in 2012. This means those tablets should, once software is made compatible with the lower power chips, run Microsoft Office and all the rest of your favorite Windows apps, assuming you have any favorites.

The basic interface elements appear to have already been mapped out. You’ll boot to a tiled screen, rather than the traditional Windows desktop and Start menu. This is reminiscent of Windows Phone 7 which, by the way, has “borrowed” the concept from traditional app launching docks, such as the Launcher in the Classic Mac OS.

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