Newsletter #431 Preview: So Apple is Succeeding or Failing or Something
March 2nd, 2008Every time I read an article about how Apple is doing at any particular point in time, finding a consensus is near to impossible.
One so-called analyst will tell you how Apple’s sales are exceeding expectations and they are poised for a blow-out quarter, while the next will take what appears to be the same set of data and present precisely the reverse conclusion.
The stock market, of course, walks the proverbial tightrope. Even the merest suggestion of bad news is sufficient to send a stock tumbling, although Apple seems to garner a higher level of extreme reactions than most companies.
Even the suggestion that far too many iPhones had not been activated was sufficient to create the unfounded impression that boxes and boxes were left unsold in warehouses and in dealer storerooms. None of this was ever confirmed with any verifiable information, but it was sufficient to cause panic.
Then came the contrary point of view that the numbers were accurate, except that they had been unlocked and resold overseas in regions where there was no official iPhone support. And certainly a fair number are being used here with T-Mobile, the “other” GSM wireless service.
Story continued in this week’s Tech Night Owl Newsletter.
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These Wall Street bozos never cease to amaze me, how they can be so lemming-like in overreacting to rumors, to the oracular pronouncements of a single “analyst” (whoever precisely these folks are), and so forth. At 200 AAPL was probably overpriced — until recently what wasn’t? — but now it’s absurdly underpriced. No matter how you slice it, the bottom line is that Apple remains one of the healthiest corporations in America and has a bright future. A few recent developments are pretty hard to argue with. In no particular order, these are 1.) Apple is now the second largest distributor of music in America, 2.) Apple has recently become one of the ten largest players in the cell phone market, 3.) the market share of the Mac keeps going up, 4.) Apple has something line a 8.5 billion dollar cash reserve. Two stories in the news just today illustrate my point: a.) the majority of laptops in use in American colleges and universities are Macs, b.) Apple seems to be having difficulty in making Mac Book Airs in sufficient number to keep up with demand. This is the picture of a healthy, booming corporation such as should elicit envy from any electronics manufacturer or entertainment distributor. Especially when you balance this against all of the woes associated with Vista and the ripple effect that’s causing throughout the peecee world, the present looks rosy and there’s no cause for concern for the near future (the one thing that ought to bother Wall Street types — the lack of a visible successor to Steve, should one suddenly become necessary — doesn’t seem to worry them at all). Summing up, it’s very hard not to conclude that these guys are a bunch of loons.