With Apple confirming a media event for October 23, it is a given that there will be a smaller iPad, and possibly a few other products, such as the long-delayed iMac refresh. In the tradition of the iPhone 5, many of the details of the iPad’s tinier sibling have already leaked, and they mostly point to a 7.85-inch display, with the same 4:3 aspect ratio of the regular iPad. This means that apps won’t have to be altered to fit the new form factor.

The rest of the specs probably won’t be significant in the scheme of things. Apple might, however, present design changes that would later be reflected in the fourth generation iPad. There’s even a slight possibility, I suppose, for a minor refresh to the new iPad, a tad slimmer and lighter, with the A6 chip for better performance. But the rumor mills that have lately been mostly on the ball about new Apple gear haven’t presented much in the way of useful information about such an animal, and it’s not as if the iPad requires an update now.

Once the smaller iPad (call it “mini,” “nano” or whatever) appears, will it just expand the market, or somewhat cannibalize sales from the iPad 2 and new iPad? I suppose people who buy on price, or just need something smaller for easier transport and book reading, would want to consider an iPad mini. One estimate had it that every five iPad mini sales would cannibalize one sale of the full-sized model, but that assumption, while logical, is just guesswork.

But there’s also a published report that the iPad 2 will disappear when the mini shows up.

The real issue, I suppose, is just how much demand exists for a smaller tablet. While the Amazon Kindle Fire has apparently done pretty well, or at least Amazon claims it has without releasing actual numbers, it doesn’t seem as if other 7-inch tablets have caught on. Google’s revenue for the last quarter missed estimates, and it doesn’t seem they are making a whole lot of money from their mobile platform. So where’s the market?

Obviously, and we assume there will be a smaller iPad, Apple expects to sell a bunch of them, particularly during the holiday season. They would also hope to grow tablet market share from 60% or so to 70% or higher, putting the iPad in the same ballpark as the iPod. Then again, Apple was only too happy to release iPods in different sizes, at different price points, to cover a host of different potential buyers. The casual shopper, for example, may choose a $49 iPod shuffle for a gift, or perhaps as a second gadget to take to the gym.

When you forget those outrageous comments from Steve Jobs about the need to sandpaper your fingers to use a smaller tablet, you can see where Apple will get around that objection by pointing to the larger amount of screen real estate with a 7.85-inch tablet and the 4:3 aspect ratio. Remember that those 7-inch tablets are generally 16:9, good for watching widescreen movies, but less useful for book reading. It’s all about the square inches, really.

As to sales, some suggest 10 million for the current quarter, assuming the announcement on October 23, and actual availability before the end of the month. Forgetting the cannibalization possibility, if the iPad mini comes in for a starting price of $249, the bottom will fall out of those $200 devices. For $49 extra you get a genuine iPad, complete with Apple’s fabulous app ecosystem — and the ability to use a Kindle app for reading titles from Amazon. That’s not the sort of premium that would be easy to overcome. I suppose Amazon could reprice the smaller Kindle HD at $149 to compete, and that Google could do the same with the Nexus 7. But that would only hurt their bottom lines. Not so much with Amazon, but Google’s less-than-stellar financials may require a serious rethinking of mobile platform strategy.

Indeed, I have to wonder whether Android even makes sense if it’s not delivering big revenue. Sure, hundreds of millions of mobile devices are using the platform, but if development stopped tomorrow, no existing product would be severely impacted. It’s not as if most of them are upgradeable to a newer OS anyway.

It’s a sure thing though that Apple isn’t going too flesh out the iPad lineup with even more screen sizes. That will only add to customer confusion, and create the same sort of annoying environment in which other tech companies operate. There are enough tablet sizes now to confuse anybody who wants to make a decision if it’s not going to be an iPad. I would not expect Apple to suddenly consider an 11-inch iPad maxi to expand the line. At that size, anyway, a regular note-book may be more suitable anyway. Besides, Apple still has a flair for understanding usability and making your purchase decisions reasonably simple. If the posted parts numbers are correct, the iPad mini will follow the standard iPad playback. It’ll be available in white or black, with various storage sizes, and a cellular networking option. That should be good enough.

I suppose you can regard Walt Mossberg, of the Wall Street Journal, as the “dean of tech journalists,” since he has been in the business for years. He also hosts the AllThingsD conferences that have featured the movers and shakers of the tech industry, including Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Steve Ballmer and Tim Cook. So what he says clearly commands respect, and when he severely understates the obvious or falls down on the job entirely in his product reviews, you have to wonder if he hasn’t just lost his edge. Or maybe it’s time to cede the job to someone else.

Take Mossberg’s review of Windows 8, which was posted Wednesday morning. Clearly Mossberg’s impressed by Microsoft’s daringly different approach to their venerable operating system. The Modern UI, formerly known as Metro, is especially impressive. Mossberg says, “It feels natural, especially on a touch screen, and brings Windows into the tablet era.”

Well, I won’t dispute the fact that the Modern UI looks nice, and runs smoothly. But Mossberg is still mindful of the landmines: “By adopting the dual-environment strategy, Microsoft risks confusing traditional PC users, who will be jumping back and forth between two ways of doing things.”

You think?

The schizophrenic nature of Windows 8 is so glaring that it’s strange that Microsoft doesn’t understand the havoc they wrought. This situation is quite different from the Classic Mac OS to OS X transition. Even when you ran Classic in its own app window under OS X, it still functioned like a Mac. Yes, OS X had notable differences in fit and polish, but the Mac fundamentals were still present and accounted for. Even though Lion and Mountain Lion incorporate features and apps derived from the iOS, the interface and usability changes are minimal in the scheme of things. Very little relearning is required.

Here’s a telling example of where Mossberg apparently overlooks serious problems. He says “the new Mail app was disappointing.” Yes, especially if you have email accounts from services other than Microsoft and Google. On the preview versions, I could see no way to add other IMAP accounts from Polaris Mail, a business email hosting service, nor from other services to which I subscribe. There may be a secret handshake, or perhaps it was a limitation of the prerelease version, but it wasn’t there, and Mossberg says nothing about the problem.

The other day, I attacked Microsoft’s decision to make such basic functions as printing more difficult. As with search, settings, and devices, the print function is buried in Charms, the Windows 8 control panel replacement that appears when you swipe in from the right edge, or click the hot spot in the upper right corner. Let me tell you it’s an awkward jump. Mossberg seems to love Charms.

The other huge problem with Windows 8 is the emphasis on touch. If you have one of hundreds of millions of regular PCs with mouse and keyboard, you’ll discover that, “If you don’t have a touchscreen, Windows 8 will still work, but more clumsily.”

So what’s the point?

Understand that Microsoft’s earns a hefty portion of their profits from the enterprise. When businesses buy truckloads of PCs, Microsoft gets an OEM license fee for Windows on each and every sale. But the chance that most IT people would touch Windows 8 with a ten foot poll is slim to none. When Mossberg says that “Microsoft risks confusing traditional PC users,” he is understating the obvious. When a company has to retrain employees without any proven benefit to productivity, they will usually consider a less expensive alternative, or just do nothing. If the company is using Windows XP, the upgrade will be to Windows 7.

For Windows 8 to succeed beyond the consumer market, Microsoft has to make the case for going all or mostly touch on a regular PC. It is definitely not the same as using the touchscreen on an iOS or Android mobile computer. Far from it. Having to jump from keyboard to screen on a traditional personal computer is not just an awkward process, it frankly doesn’t make much sense. That explains why tablets that were essentially convertible note-books have failed in the marketplace.

Microsoft doesn’t get it. You’ll notice that even Microsoft’s Surface tablet emphasizes the use of a PC-style keyboard and putting the unit on a desk using the kickstand rather than just holding it on your hand, or on your lap.

Mossberg’s effort to be a little too fair and balanced is best exemplified in the concluding paragraph of his review: “Microsoft deserves credit for giving Windows a new, modern, face. And the company will surely please existing users by maintaining the old one and the ability to run older apps. But the combination will require re-learning the most familiar computing system on the planet.”

But the danger signs are obvious. Yes, loud and boisterous Windows 8 and Surface ads may attract a reasonable number of consumers. But for those who actually want to get real work done, productivity will just go out the window.

So should we start talking about Windows 9 yet?

One way to get attention is to shout. But why shout about a Browsers. Browsers are commodity apps these days, with raw performance differing by milliseconds in most respects. Many of the fundamentals, such as tabs and popup ad blocking, are a given. There are interface variations, of course, and the emphasis on features that may make one browser more popular than another. But since they are free, you can try as many as you want, and leave a few installed as your tastes change.

Now in the face of a declining market share, Microsoft has decided to spend a fair amount of money with noisy TV ads touting the “beautiful” experience of using Internet Explorer. Understand that a standards compliant browser should render a site the same as another standards compliant browser. If it renders that site differently — more beautiful or otherwise — it’s not doing the right job. But going against standards wouldn’t be anything new for Microsoft.

But the loud music is definitely irritating, and it appears loud was also the basis for the new Surface tablet campaign. You have clicks, clicks, and more clicks, with people dancing and otherwise engaging in wild, wacky behavior. I suppose it’s a desperate attempt to gain your attention, but at the end of the day, you see it once and you never want to see it again. Worse, you really know nothing about the product other than its appearance. By emphasizing the horizontal placement on the built-in kickstand, it is less a traditional tablet, and more of a netbook.

What you can accomplish on the Surface isn’t clear either. You just want to click it, I suppose. But I’ll withhold final judgement until I can spend some face time with one.

However, Microsoft has finally fleshed out the details, and made the Surface RT (the one with the ARM processor) available for pre-order. The standard Windows 8 Pro version, with an Intel processor, ships later.

As already disclosed, there is a $499.00 32GB version that we now know will ship without a Black Touch Cover, although this stripped version won’t arrive for another three weeks. Available for delivery on October 26 is the 32GB version with the cover for $599.00, and a 64GB version with cover for $699.00. These are all Wi-Fi products; there is no cellular version. A Surface Touch Cover in white is $119.99, but it doesn’t appear that you can substitute this accessory for the black version, so it only appears to make sense to buy one with the entry-level model. Such is Microsoft’s confusing ordering process.

You’ll notice, also, that Microsoft is selling the Surface for $100 less than the iPad. But to add to the confusion, there are actually two covers. The Surface Type Cover, at $129.99, appears to offer a more traditional keyboard feel with a full row of PC-type function keys.

Typical of Microsoft’s peculiar marketing approach, the Surface is advertised as “Timeless. Tough.” I fail to see what that has to do with the things you are expected to accomplish with the new tablet. At least the ads for the iPad show people actually doing something and not just dancing and making click sounds.

To Microsoft’s credit, the Surface is daringly different. It doesn’t resemble anyone else’s tablet. For the most part, the rest of the pack have made their best efforts to glom onto the success of the iPad, sometimes a little too much, which is why Apple is busy trying to get the courts to stop those tablets from being sold. The Surface won’t be confused with the iPad. The emphasis on the Touch Cover and Type Cover and the horizontal placement on a kickstand speak of PC, not tablet.

Of course, you cannot expect Apple to reduce the price of the iPad in the face of competition from Microsoft, any more than the price has been changed because of the onslaught of Android OS tablets. Most of them have been abject failures anyway, and it doesn’t seem there’s any potential for success outside of the 7-inch models. But wait till the iPad mini arrives, which is expected next week.

With the Surface RT, Microsoft is taking a risky move, that, in spite of the stellar success of the iPad, lots of customers will take to a totally different product, without a large app repository, beyond a touch-based Office “preview.” Despite the urgings of Microsoft, will developers want to risk developing for a product without a proven track record? Yes, Apple was in a similar position early on with the iPhone, but there was nothing to match the concept of the App Store, even though there were apps available for other smartphones.

Despite the heavy-duty promotion, Microsoft’s “design point” apparently will only be available online and via the small Microsoft Store chain. Will that be sufficient to move millions of Surfaces? And if the user base remains small, how does Microsoft build a unique app ecosystem? Will other PC makers attempt to build compelling ARM-based tablets as Surface alternatives, or just cede that portion of the market to Microsoft, and try to get some sales from Intel-based designs?

At least Intel-based tablets will be able to run existing Windows apps. So there is that, except that such tablets have gone nowhere.

In any case, here’s another Microsoft “in your face” campaign. Will it grab your attention, or make you feel tempted to push the fast forward button on your DVR?

Had things turned out as originally predicted, the iPad mini launch would have taken place on Wednesday. Or at least that’s what the rumor sites suggested until it was too late to send out invitations to the media for such an event. On Tuesday, Apple confirmed the rumored media event for October 23rd, with the significant observation, “We’ve got a little more to show you.”

Rather than hold the event in San Francisco, which has been the usual plan in recent years, this “little” presentation will be held at the California Theater, in San Jose, CA. It may seem a given that Apple stated where it would take place. But you have to consider the peculiar stance taken by Microsoft, when they invited the media to the Surface tablet rollout on July 18 in Los Angeles but didn’t reveal the actual location until that morning.

Yes, I suppose Microsoft was under pressure to prove they can innovate, and not just innovate but amaze. The Surface is meant as the “design point” to influence PC makers to deliver compelling Windows 8 computers. Certainly the curious collection of convertible note-books with swivel displays, and pull out keyboards, haven’t gone anywhere. Sony’s 20-inch note-book, the VAIO Tap 20, meant to serve as a portable or a stationary all-in-one PC, may be a contender for the worst computer of the year.

By launching the iPad mini next week, there’s a good chance that Apple will upstage any announcement or product introduction from the tech industry that week and beyond. One of those product inductions is Windows 8, which goes on sale on October 26.

Imagine Apple receiving the usual round of worldwide coverage for a tinier iPad, maybe a slightly refreshed full-size iPad, and maybe some new Macs. At the same time, Microsoft is spending hundreds of millions of dollars to convince you that Windows 8 is the way and the truth in PC land.

But while millions will fast forward through Microsoft’s TV spots, assuming they time-shift or use a DVR to record shows, or take a parlor room break, Apple will receive huge amounts of free advertising in the mainstream and tech media. There will no doubt be some real clever ads to explain the launch of the iPad’s baby brother (or sister).

If you’ve avoided Microsoft’s loud and senseless Internet Explorer ads, you probably have a really good idea just how Windows 8 will be launched. The first ads for the Surface tablet have been described as downright bizarre. The incessant and annoying clicks throughout the ad appear to have been borrowed and expanded from the ads for Kit Kat wafer bars.

On the other hand, I signed up to the Surface mailing list back in July. You know how many promotional pieces I’ve received from Microsoft since then fleshing out the threadbare feature set of the Surface? Absolutely none. When I visited Microsoft’s Surface site before writing this article, I found it as spare of useful information as ever. If Microsoft truly plans to sell the Surface RT, the ARM-based version, with the arrival of Windows 8, why isn’t there any useful information, or some way to place an advance order?

Well, actually there was, briefly, but the page describing the Surface, with a starting price of $499 for a 32GB version without the keyboard cover, just as quickly disappeared.

Now it’s not that I want to constantly see Microsoft fail. Competition is good for the industry, and certainly Google’s Android OS is a credible alternative to the iOS. Sure, it may be derivative, though it’s also true that some of Android’s features aren’t available on the iOS yet, and perhaps may never be, because Apple doesn’t consider them useful. But customers have a fair choice of smartphones and tablets.

Where does Microsoft fit in this picture? The Windows Phone platform hasn’t taken off. Microsoft’s decision to block even recent handsets from getting an upgrade to Windows Phone 8 is a totally wrongheaded decision. Overnight, Microsoft gutted sales of existing product, while the flagship Nokia Lumia 920 won’t go on sale until next month. Can we also be assured that, when Windows Phone 9 arrives, the upcoming Nokia smartphones won’t be able to upgrade either? Does Steve Ballmer’s team really know what’s going on?

If, despite everything, Windows 8 and the Windows Phone platform do confound expectations of failure, and succeed, good for Microsoft. A third credible competitor in the smartphone industry will be good for everyone.

But Microsoft doesn’t have a huge window of opportunity to get the word out before being drowned in a sea of iPad, iPhone, Samsung and Droid ads. If Apple does hold a media event next week, it won’t help Microsoft’s efforts to get some sorely-needed attention.

But it’s all going to make for an interesting holiday shopping season. Meantime, I wonder if Microsoft is busy looking for a new ad agency. They should be.