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    Last Episode — August 24: Gene presents a regular, tech podcaster and commentator Kirk McElhearn , who comes aboard to talk about the impact of the outbreak of data hacks and ways to protect your stuff with strong passwords. He’ll also provide a common sense if unsuspected tip in setting one up. Also on the agenda, rumors about the next Mac mini from Apple. Will it, as rumored, be a visual clone of the Apple TV, and what are he limitations of such a form factor? As a sci-fi and fantasy fan, Kirk will also talk about some of his favorite stories and more. In is regular life, Kirk is a lapsed New Yorker living in Shakespeare’s home town, Stratford-upon-Avon, in the United Kingdom. He writes about things, records podcasts, makes photos, practices zen, and cohabits with cats. He’s an amateur photographer, and shoots with Leica cameras and iPhones. His writings include regular contributions to The Mac Security Blog , The Literature & Latte Blog, and TidBITS, and he has written for Popular Photography, MusicWeb International, as well as several other web sites and magazines. Kirk has also written more than two dozen books and documentation for dozens of popular Mac apps, as well as press releases, web content, reports, white papers, and more.

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    So Apple Isn’t Looking Very Beleaguered!

    April 22nd, 2009

    Consider what some so-called tech pundits and industry analysts said in the long (some say endless) run up to Apple’s quarterly report. Mac sales are down and Apple has a problem. They’ve got to cut prices and rush out a netbook to save the business.

    Perhaps the best comment I read about Apple’s quarterly financials, released Wednesday afternoon, came in an email in which a friend forwarded a link to their press release on the subject and said: “I dunno…Apple isn’t looking very beleaguered to me. :-)”

    Indeed, Apple reported its best non-holiday quarter in the company’s history, with total sales of $8.16 billion, compared to analyst estimates of $7.96 billion. Net income increased to $1.21 billion, or $1.33 per share, compared to $1.05 billion, or $1.16 per share. To be blunt, as we previously predicted, Apple beat the street yet again.

    Overall, some 2.2 million Macs were sold during the March quarter, representing a three percent decrease compared to last year. However, the desktop refresh in early March has apparently helped, because sales did improve markedly after that product introduction. In all, Apple regards actual sell through, which means units shipped to customers, as “relatively flat” year over year.

    Despite predictions that iPod sales were finally going to dip, they actually increased three percent to 11.01 million. Yes, not a substantial increase, and it does seem the new iPod shuffle helped a lot, but predictions that the best selling digital media player on the planet are fated to decrease have to be updated for yet another quarter.

    As far as the iPhone is concerned, 3.79 million units were sold, an increase of 123 percent over last year.

    In the words of Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer: “We are extremely pleased to report the best non-holiday quarterly revenue and earnings in our history. Apple’s financial condition remains very robust, with almost $29 billion in cash and marketable securities on our balance sheet. Looking ahead to the third fiscal quarter of 2009, we expect revenue in the range of about $7.7 billion to $7.9 billion and we expect diluted earnings per share in the range of about $.95 to $1.00.”

    All in all, these numbers sound quite good to me considering the perilous state of the economy. Besides, they have $28.9 billion in “cash and marketable securities” to help whether the storm, if a storm should occur. If you’re into numbers and want to explore them in more detail, you’ll want to check Apple’s site directly for their official release on the subject.

    As to the subject on the minds of many, considering the unexpectedly good financial results, Apple clearly remains highly skeptical about netbooks. In the usual earnings conference with financial analysts after the numbers were released, acting CEO Tim Cook continued to pour huge amounts of cold water on the prospect: “”I see cramped keyboards, terrible software… very small screens…not something we would put the Mac brand on. It’s not a segment we’re interested in and we don’t believe customers are interested in.”

    “A customer who wants to buy a small computer for e-mail or web browsing may want to buy an iPod touch or an iPhone.”

    Despite that, it does appear Apple isn’t closing the door on the prospects of a netbook, “if we find a way to deliver a product that makes an innovative contribution.” Don’t forget that Apple has also denigrated product categories in the past, such as a low-cost Mac, only to release its own entrant into that space months later; in that case, the Mac mini.

    In case you’re curious, Steve Jobs is still expected to return from his extended medical leave in late June. Saying “expected,” of course, doesn’t mean he can’t or won’t show up, at least for a cameo appearance, at the WWDC keynote earlier that month.

    Understand the skeptics won’t give up their efforts to restore Apple to beleaguered status. They will probe every single digit in Apple’s financial report in order to find evidence that Mac adoption was nothing more than a flirtation, and that customers are now ready to return to Windows, where they can do “real” computing.

    One so-called analyst, in fact, claimed that Apple was immune to most of the effects of the economy because of the alleged Apple Tax and the fact that they cater to more prosperous customers. However, sales of Macs desktops actually favored the low-cost Mac mini rather than the high-end Mac Pro workstation. So much for analysts and their wrongheaded assumptions.

    What I’d like to see, when Microsoft reports its results, which are apt to show a more than a few troublesome numbers, is whether anyone is going to ask bombastic CEO Steve Ballmer whether Microsoft itself is actually the beleaguered company. I think it is, and that if they don’t make substantial organizational and product changes in the next few years, they will become the Wang Laboratories of the 21st century.


    Assuming Facts Not in Evidence

    April 21st, 2009

    Depending on which survey you’ve read, Apple’s market share has either gone up or down slightly so far this year. If you assume the more pessimistic results, you might be inclined to want to tell Apple what they need to do next in order to survive, although you just know they won’t listen.

    Take a column I recently read, one that doesn’t deserve a link, claiming Apple needs to deliver a netbook post haste in order to save the Mac business. Regardless of the sales figures that will be reported this week, that conclusion is sheer nonsense.

    Unlike other PC makers, Apple has not been known to make knee-jerk decisions about what products to sell. That’s not how they grew from the ashes of the 1990s and became as prosperous as they are today. I should also remind the critics that Apple has billions of dollars in the bank — a solvent financial institution we presume — and they are thus able to withstand short-term falloffs in sales without having to change long-term strategy.

    While nobody in their right mind would suggest for a moment that the world’s economic crisis hasn’t hurt Apple, so long as they remain profitable, it probably won’t impact the company’s long-term survival. Indeed, the person who maybe put off switching to a Mac or buying a new one this quarter may be quite willing to do so when finances improve. Even the Windows fanboys aren’t suggesting that Mac users are suddenly fed up paying the alleged “Apple Tax” and are rushing off to buy a PC in the hope of saving a few dollars.

    Yes, it’s true that netbooks seem to be popular these days. But I don’t think their long-term success is proven. Sure, a fair number of people might find that a $299 Asus is all the computer they need and that anything more expensive is a waste of money. Whether or not that’s a sale lost to to Apple is another matter entirely. It may be that the sale simply represents the loss of demand for more expensive Windows PCs, but that also remains to be seen.

    Another possibility is that the people who buy the netbook would prefer something more powerful, more feature-laden, but they simply don’t have the money to make that purchase right now. So they make do, expecting to buy something better a few months or years down the pike when the bank account or credit limits allow. That, however, may not be readily apparent until the economy demonstrates more than scattered pockets of improvement.

    Knowing, then, that Apple isn’t apt to rush into a product segment unless it can sustain itself over a period of years and not months, does it truly make sense for them to release a netbook right now?

    Understand I’m not saying they won’t do it. But don’t forget that Apple didn’t get where it is being first to market a new type of device, but on doing it better. Lest we forget, there were portable digital music players available before the iPod, although none were memorable. Apple looked at the category and found a way to build a product that did most everything better, and it took a long time for other companies to sense what happened. By then, the iPod had became a verb and the Zune became an afterthought.

    Do you recall how often Apple was urged to build a cheap Mac? Well, it’s true that, just months after saying they’d never do such a thing, the Mac mini debuted. All right, it’s not the least expensive personal computer on the market, and it was sadly neglected for an awfully long time when it came to promotional opportunities, but enough customers evidently bought them regularly to finally convince Apple to deliver an upgrade.

    I know that Apple Tax advocates will tell me that the $599 Mac mini, the base model, is terribly overpriced. That is until they try to deliver a close match on the PC side with roughly equivalent hardware and software. Suddenly, the price difference goes down considerably. And despite that wretched study from hack industry analyst Roger Kay, the long-term viability of a Mac mini is far greater than most any sub-$1,000 PC desktop.

    The iPhone may have amazed or confounded the competition, but you just know it’s typical of Apple. Had they not found an innovative way to address the shortcomings of existing smart phones, I doubt that Apple would have bothered. But when you look at how many “regular people” owned a smartphone before the iPhone arrived and after, you’ll see where Apple made its impact.

    Suddenly the latecomer to the party became the product everyone else tried to imitate. If the iPhone was destined to fail, why would they bother? Why indeed?

    Why, with billions of dollars of resources allocated to the task, does Microsoft’s successor for the failed Windows Vista replace the existing taskbar with a pale imitation of the Mac OS X Dock? Is that their concept of innovation? But I’ve ragged on Microsoft enough, at least for today.

    And, in any case, regardless of what quarterly results Apple provides this week, it will probably be better than the analysts expect, but not as good as some of you might have hoped. On the long term, however, it probably won’t hurt them.


    How Should Apple Answer Microsoft’s New Ad Campaign?

    April 20th, 2009

    This weekend, more of Apple’s neat Mac versus PC vignettes came out. While the usual Windows flaws, such as susceptibility to malware, were covered, Apple was careful not to respond to Microsoft’s latest marketing attempts to regain lost ground for the Windows platform.

    It’s not as if Apple didn’t respond at all. Corporate communications rep Bill Evans previously made a few pithy comments to the tech media that “”A PC is no bargain when it doesn’t do what you want.”

    Naturally, he was referencing those frenetic ads in which Microsoft sends someone into a store to buy a note-book computer with a fixed budget. In each case, the buyers acquire an HP portable with questionable performance, one that wasn’t likely to perform to their expectations. But at least they had a choice.

    When you look at those ads, you have to wonder what possessed these people to make those selections, unless, of course, HP secretly paid part of the bill. Even then, HP has a huge product lineup, and they have models that would have been more competitive with the Macs and likely would have better suited the needs of these buyers. So I suppose it also proves that someone who buys a PC with Windows, when given a lot of choices, will tend to make poor selections.

    Take that Microsoft!

    I’m not altogether sure whether Microsoft even realizes the sort of message they’ve conveyed. Their intention, of course, was to prove that you have more options at lower prices with their platform, but you have to recall what Bill Evans said about that. In the auto industry, you can also purchase products that lack basic features in order to save money, but does that also represent your best choice?

    Now, despite the obvious flaws, it’s always possible that Microsoft’s expanded ad campaign will actually have a positive result, and halt Apple’s growing curve beyond the end of the current recession. After all, most people are not going to be able to deconstruct these ads in the way the Mac media has been doing. The images will just flash by and perhaps there will be some sort of impact. Perhaps. Unfortunately, I’m not in the ad business, so I wouldn’t presume to be able to offer a qualified opinion.

    Putting myself in the position of the consumer, however, I don’t think these ads, with their frantic style, are going to have much of an impact. The message that you have a choice on the Windows platform isn’t well conveyed, and there are few choice moments to recall. This is quite unlike the truly effective Windows ads that have been broadcast from time to time, featuring children who are able to do such things as easily edit photos on their PCs.

    Indeed, that specific campaign caught my attention above the usual clutter, and it carried a message that Microsoft, for whatever reason, seems unable to expand upon.

    As far as Apple is concerned, I don’t think they need to do anything beyond what they’ve done already. The concern about Microsoft’s ads was discussed in the tech media, and that’s where Apple confined its response.

    The rest of the public, most of whom don’t follow PC platform debates, were given, instead, a new lineup of Apple ads that present the same friendly Mac versus PC rivalry that has been so successful in the past, with the same basic concepts. Macs are simple to use and secure, while Windows PCs are malware-ridden machines that create endless frustration. End of story.

    Anything that truly addresses the specifics of Microsoft’s ad campaign — whichever one they choose to concentrate on this week — would only draw more attention to the originals. A defensive attitude of that sort would surely best serve Microsoft’s interests, so it won’t happen.

    It’s also questionable just where Microsoft will focus their efforts next. They could, perhaps, continue to pour modest sums of money into the hands of preselected shills and follow them around with video cameras expecting them to make the appropriate purchase decisions, as they will. After all, that’s the essence of the marching orders they received when they agreed to participate.

    I also hope they at least get proper union wages for appearing in those ads, and residuals when they are repeated. Isn’t that the way the standard contracts are written?

    Then again, Apple will continue to do best by ignoring the media, ignoring (for the most part) Microsoft’s pathetic efforts to save their falling market share, and producing ads that not only attract attention but remain memorable.

    More to the point, Apple continues to build products that basically back up the claims. Could you say the same of Microsoft? How many of their campaigns truly relate to their products in a similar fashion?

    Consider that famous campaign for Windows ’95 that featured “Start Me Up!” by The Rolling Stones. Did Microsoft ever read the lyrics, particularly the phrase “You make a grown man cry”?

    Anyone who has spent extended face time coping with Windows bugs and malware would agree.


    Newsletter #490 Preview: Mac Support = Good; PC Support = Bad

    April 19th, 2009

    Apple always remarks that they will not build junk when they are asked why there’s no cheap Mac. PC makers, however, struggle to eke out sales in every conceivable product category, from netbooks to Web servers. They are also notorious for shaving costs wherever they can, and that often comes at the expense of their customers.

    I recall, for example, talking with a couple of techs from Dell a few years ago while helping set up a PC for Internet access at a client’s home. Understand that Dell, in those days, was number one in the PC market, and had a reputation for actually delivering reasonably good tech support.

    However, my experience was far from encouraging. The first tech sounded as if he was reading direct from a “cheat sheet” when I asked several probing questions about a specific setup option. I interrupted, asking him to get to the point, and he’d simply return to the beginning and resume his droning delivery of useless information.

    In frustration, I asked him to stop and escalate the matter to a supervisor.

    Story continued in this week’s Tech Night Owl Newsletter.